2023-11-30 09:05:00
ANALYSIS | Israel and Hamas have much to gain from an extension of the truce, but fighting is likely to resume anyway
Soldiers stand on tanks near the Gaza border on November 29, 2023 on Israel’s southern border. Credit: Amir Levy/Getty Images
Both Israel and Hamas could have much to gain from an extension of the current truce. But experts say the eventual resumption of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza is inevitable.
The lull in fighting between Israel and Hamas, in which the militant group released kidnapped hostages on October 7 in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, has now entered its sixth and potentially final day. However, negotiators are working to achieve another extension, which could allow the release of more hostages and prolong the pause in the Israeli military campaign in Gaza.
For Israel, an extension means the return of dozens more hostages, which is particularly important for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been under intense pressure from the Israeli public to bring the hostages home. For Hamas, he offers a respite from the fighting, a chance to regroup and benefit from the aid that is gradually reaching the besieged territory.
During the first five days of the truce, Hamas freed 81 hostages, mainly women and children. Approximately 240 hostages were kidnapped during the Hamas attack on Israel.
Israel released 180 Palestinian women and children from prison, many of whom were detained and never charged.
“The main interest (for the Israelis) is to get those hostages home,” Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli hostage negotiator who once acted as a conduit for Hamas, told CNN. “The whole country is glued to the television watching them being transported in Red Cross vehicles and then landing in Israel.”
For Hamas, Baskin said, there is no need to hold civilian hostages. “It’s a burden on his logistics,” he said, adding that they probably just want to keep the Israeli soldiers hostage. Israel has not said how many of its soldiers are being held by the militant group, but Baskin said there is little expectation that Hamas will release them as part of the current deal.
With an extension of the truce, Hamas can also hope that international pressure will build on Israel to prevent a resumption of the war, Baskin said, while noting that Israeli society overwhelmingly supports a conflict that eliminates Hamas from a once and for all.
A poll of the public in Israel conducted earlier this month by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that a majority of respondents believe that “Israel should immediately negotiate with Hamas over the release of hostages in Gaza, but should not stop the fighting.” ”.
Some ministers in Israel’s far-right government are doing everything they can to ensure that fighting resumes. Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened on Tuesday to break up the ruling coalition if the war ends.
However, negotiations are likely to be complicated by reports that Hamas is not in possession of all the hostages. A diplomatic source briefed on the negotiations told CNN on Monday that more than 40 hostages are not currently held by Hamas, and CNN previously reported that an estimated 40 to 50 hostages were held by Palestinian Islamic Jihad or other groups or individuals.
Israel estimates that 159 hostages are still in Gaza, Netanyahu’s office told CNN on Wednesday.
Baskin said it is extremely unlikely that after seven weeks Hamas will not be able to locate the rest of the hostages, adding that the group is likely spreading that news to stop negotiations.
“It’s a delaying tactic on the part of Hamas,” he said, adding that the group is too powerful and too focused on the enclave to lose sight of the hostages.
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