Israel has passed its stress test and Iran knows it, the analysis of General Tricarico –

Leonardo Tricarico

April 15, 2024

If anyone still had doubts about the impenetrability of Israeli airspace, with the massive attack of April 13th conducted with various devices, from various directions and at the same time, a tombstone has been placed on the expectations of those who in the future would venture into an attack on Israel from heaven. It was a real stress test of the overall defense system, the results of which were certainly not surprising but certainly met with admiration and applause even from experts in the field. An attack of such characteristics and dimensions, carried out against any other country in the world, even the most advanced, would not have resulted in such a convincing and effective response.

The hope is that the substantial failure of Iranian aggression appeases Tehran’s desire for revenge (this seems to be the Iranian orientation at the moment) and at the same time does not trigger reactions from Israel which should grasp the meaning of the performances of its air force of rounded success. On the other hand, it is undeniable that it was a very serious act, an act that nevertheless marked a change of pace in a conflict conducted so far by Iran with the exclusive recourse to its numerous affiliates scattered throughout the area. . In other words, no one can exclude that the explosive potential of Iranian revenge was exhausted with the hail of missiles on the night of April 13th. What is certain is that the air spaces above Israel are literally armored, that the integrated defense system works very well and that therefore the strategies of those who do not give in and intend to continue to wage war on the Jewish State must be different.

We will have to wait for the reactions of both sides, in the never too strongly expressed hope that the so-called international community will exercise a more active, or rather, more muscular role towards those – anyone who does not show signs of genuine good intentions to promote an easing of tension and the subsequent conditions for negotiation. To tell the truth, contrary to what happened in the Russian-Ukrainian theatre, diplomacy in the Middle East has worked hard, tirelessly, starting with that of the United States accompanied by Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and other willing regional actors. Diplomatic attempts which, however, have confirmed that deterrence is a now malfunctioning instrument, that the convincing arguments must be more targeted and at times more refined and certainly implemented with greater peremptoriness. Starting naturally with Israel; the point scored in its favor with the safeguarding of its borders – the one we were used to before 7 October – must be able to represent a terminal point, a satisfying response to the barbaric aggression of Hamas. In short, Israel would come out of this with its head held high, it would bring home the kidnapped citizens who were still alive, and above all it would be able to grasp what still remains of the strategic prospects in the area, starting with the restart of the process of détente with the once hostile Arab countries, and whose endurance has been put to a far too severe test.