2024-04-09 15:17:37
Since Hezbollah announced its involvement in the war that Hamas started on October 7, the date of its sudden attack on Israel, by opening a “support and support” front on the Lebanese border, hardly a day goes by without losing a number of its members and leaders, whether from During the Israeli bombing or assassination operations carried out on all Lebanese and even Syrian territories.
Israel expanded the scope of its confrontation with Hezbollah, going beyond what is known as the “rules of engagement,” in terms of area, targets, and type of weapons. Its strikes were not limited to its centers and infrastructure, but rather went beyond assassinating its leaders wherever they were.
Since the start of the battle on the northern border, it seems that the Israeli army has been seeking what it calls “collecting the price” from Hezbollah, according to what experts and observers tell the “Al-Hurra” website.
Despite the conflicting numbers about the party’s human losses, Reuters indicates that about 270 of its members were killed in the first six months of the war, in addition to about 50 civilians, while Agence France-Presse confirms that the number of its deaths reached at least 359, including 236 members of the party and 70 civilians. .
Looking at the aforementioned statistics, it seems that the death toll is large compared to the party’s losses during the “July War” in 2006, which affected all Lebanese territories.
Target list
In the first month of the ongoing battles, Hezbollah suffered very large human losses as a result of the firing of its members, according to what the head of the Middle East Center for Studies in Lebanon, Brigadier General Hisham Jaber, said: “Direct missiles, remaining in place, and after a few minutes A few were bombed by Israeli drones, but now they are moving quickly from their positions.”
Israel also targets, according to what Jaber told Al-Hurra website, “the third echelon of Hezbollah, as it has a list of people it wants to assassinate, and uses advanced means that allow it to spy on their phones and track their locations via the Global Positioning System (GPS).” In addition to recruiting agents, while the party announces the names of its dead…”
Jaber says: “The July war lasted for four weeks and was completely different from the battles taking place now, during which 4,000 Lebanese fell, including 500 Hezbollah members. Today, only 280 Hezbollah members were recorded as falling.”
For his part, the strategic and military expert, retired Brigadier General Naji Malaeb, believes that “in light of the presence of the international emergency forces in southern Lebanon and the deployment of the Lebanese army there, and without the presence of approved sites for Hezbollah in the surrounding villages, when the party’s members go out to the forests and place rocket launchers To bomb Israeli barracks, they expose themselves to aerial monitoring and targeting, in addition to the party’s leaders being targeted while traveling in cars or while in their homes, which causes a significant increase in its losses.”
In an interview with Al-Hurra website, Malaeb added, “We live in the era of artificial intelligence and cyber wars, where advanced technologies are used to monitor behind the lines. Targeting today requires precise surveillance and advanced monitoring using technology, in addition to the role of agents who may play the difficult economic situation in Lebanon.” “A role in some of them joining Israeli spy networks, which leads to increased targeting and thus an increase in the number of victims.”
Fundamental difference
The head of the Regional Forum for Consultations and Studies, retired Brigadier General Khaled Hamadeh, stresses that “the current clash taking place in southern Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israel cannot be compared with what happened in 2006, as there is a fundamental difference in the battle system followed by either Israel or By Hezbollah.
Hamadeh explains in an interview with the “Al-Hurra” website, “In 2006, Israel relied on violent bombing of all official infrastructure in Lebanon, including bridges, power stations, and other vital facilities, and did not directly target the deployment points of Hezbollah or its fighters, and it was These destructive attacks are justified by saying that the Lebanese state is responsible for the presence of Hezbollah on its territory and must bear the consequences. In return, Hezbollah was positioned in underground defensive positions, which contributed to its protection and not being exposed to direct losses.
As for the real confrontation that took place at that time, according to Hamadeh, it was “in the last days of the war, when the Israeli army entered Lebanese territory, and that was its weak point, as it was confronted by using ambushes and striking its flanks, rear wings, and armored vehicles in places where it was impossible to maneuver. In reality, it was not There is a direct confrontation between exposed units with the Israeli army. Rather, Hezbollah groups were taking cover, taking firing positions, waiting for the Israeli army and inflicting losses on it, which made them reduce losses and achieve a differential advantage.”
As for now, there is no ground incursion, Hamada says, “Israel is focusing its information efforts on pursuing the party’s members and what it considers its infrastructure, without there being any random exposure to infrastructure or elements unrelated to the party, and this method used saves Israel a lot of effort.” It depends on enquiry, collecting information, investigating it, pursuing targets, and dealing with them accurately.”
Regarding the difference between the “July War” and the ongoing battles, Mulaeb said, “In 2006, we witnessed an Israeli incursion, where the goal was to occupy and systematically destroy Lebanese towns by Israeli aircraft without resorting to direct clashes or targeting Hezbollah leaders, and the party did not have a presence.” Organized as it is today, and he did not have the experiences he gained from his war in Syria, where he was deployed in the region opposite Israel.”
Jaber also says: “In the July War, we witnessed an invasion of Lebanese territory by the Israeli army, while now we witness daily clashes without the Israeli army entering a single inch into Lebanese territory.”
Technical development
There is also a major technical difference represented, according to Hamada, “in the technological development between the period from 2006 to 2023 and 2024, that is, for a period of approximately 17 and a half years. Technologies related to communications, jamming, information gathering, and prosecution have witnessed great progress, and among the most notable developments is the expansion of the use of drones.” “And improving the ability to monitor and follow up on targets around the clock.”
In addition, “the ability to shoot in bad weather conditions or from high altitudes has become more available. This advanced level of technology has provided the Israeli army with great opportunities to achieve casualties among Hezbollah’s ranks and pursue precise targets such as elements and sites used to launch rockets.”
Hamada’s words are confirmed by Malaeb, saying, “The prominent difference from the 2006 war lies in the presence of highly advanced technologies, as Israel’s ability is not limited to importing these technologies, but also manufacturing and supplying them. For example, when Germany participated in NATO in Afghanistan, it hired four marches.” “Israeli, and currently, Britain is importing these Israeli marches.”
On the other hand, according to Malaeb, Israel owns the “NSO” electronic intelligence company that specializes in spying on phones, and it is part of the Israeli Intelligence and Intelligence Unit, despite the claim that it is a private company. For this reason, Hezbollah prohibits its members from carrying mobile phone devices during their movements. The use of cameras connected to the Internet is prohibited in homes in border villages.”
Special strategy
The Israeli military analyst, Eyal Alema, looks at the numbers of Hezbollah deaths with an eye tinged with discrepancies and differences. He says that the party “always tries to give incorrect numbers, in an attempt to reduce losses.”
According to what Alima explains to Al-Hurra website, he begins by bombing and hitting sites or paralyzing Hezbollah’s capabilities so that the process of building them becomes difficult.
Kobi Lavie, a military expert and retired Israeli brigadier general, believes that the number of deaths of the other side is not important to Israel, “given the severe damage caused and the evacuation of people from their homes.”
Therefore, the war continues “in order to stop all attempts to displace its citizens from their country,” indicating that Israel is proceeding according to a special strategy in operations to target Hezbollah and its leaders.
He added to Al-Hurra website that the precise Israeli strikes are intended to make Hezbollah think again about whether to expand the war or not.
Between two wars
Alima does not see any commonalities between the current battle that Israel is waging with Hezbollah and the one that took place in July 2006.
He says: “Everything is different,” explaining: “Israel, during the 2006 war, targeted deep into Lebanese territory and infrastructure, and although it is now targeting and reaching points deep in Lebanon, it seems that they are adhering to the rules.”
He added, “We see a deterioration at the level of the geographical area and the targeting of areas deep inside Lebanon, but the operations target military targets, not civilian infrastructure. On the other hand, we do not see that Hezbollah, for its part, also resorts to launching missiles into the Israeli center and depth.”
As for retired Brigadier General Kobi Lavi, he considers that Israel “has crazy capabilities,” but it “does not open the way for the enemy to fully understand how you think and what exactly you want now. We will see gradually greater capabilities later, and it is not wise for Israel to say what it has to the world now.”
Lavie adds, “Israel’s capabilities must be hidden and only used and displayed in cases of war. This is what we are seeing now.”
The situation is heading towards escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, as Jaber believes, “But it is not in Hezbollah’s interest to open a wide front, especially since there is controversy and division within Lebanon over its weapons, and no one in Lebanon wants to destroy the country, so Hezbollah is on the defensive, but If Israel opens the front, it will respond with precise missiles, and it will then find broad support from the Lebanese because it is defending their country.”
Likewise, according to Jaber, the Israelis “prefer to be on the defensive, and in the event of an attack, they will seek help from the United States under the pretext that Hezbollah is the aggressor. While the scope of Israeli strikes in Lebanon expands, Hezbollah responds by expanding strikes in the Golan, and there are red lines that the party does not cross.” He weighs his strikes on a gold scale.”
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