New York Giants quarterback J.J. McCarthy is making the most of his opportunity to start for the team. McCarthy delivered a performance against the Texans showcasing arm velocity on perimeter throws while simultaneously posting the lowest dropback success rate among starting signal-callers.
Fantasy & Market Impact
- McCarthy Volatility: Fantasy managers should expect high variance while McCarthy relies heavily on low-probability deep routes.
- Colts Backfield Shift: A potential benching of Daniel Jones would thrust Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard into immediate fantasy relevance.
- Passing Matchups: Elite passers facing double A-gap defensive fronts require adjusted expectations due to depressed expected points added (EPA) per play.
Sorting Through the J.J. McCarthy Narratives in New York
Sunday’s matchup against the Texans produced the most throwing highlights of McCarthy’s young tenure with the Giants, validating his 2024 first-round pedigree. The former Michigan standout hit Malik Nabers with a perfectly placed back-shoulder ball on a fade route from the slot, connected with Nabers again on a tight-window corner route, and found Malachi Fields on a sail route between two defenders. But the tape reveals a persistent mechanical strain. McCarthy routinely throws with maximum physical effort, nearly launching himself out of his shoes to muscle the ball to the sideline, occasionally producing sinking fastballs that require maximum effort to secure.
J.J. McCarthy is 1-0 as a Giants starter
Those perimeter shots are not high-probability throws, even for arms with elite velocity. That reality underpinned his lowest dropback success rate among league starters in Week 7. Without the refined precision to consistently work underneath or the touch to distribute over the middle, the Giants’ passing attack remains inherently volatile.
| Quarterback | Current Metric / QBR | Previous Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones (2026) | 40.3 QBR (31st in NFL) | 7.7 YPA on the move (2025) |
| J.J. McCarthy (2026) | 8 of 13 outside numbers (>10 air yards) | Lowest Week 7 dropback success rate |
Time to Bench Daniel Jones in Indianapolis?
With the Indianapolis Colts firing long-time general manager Chris Ballard and trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner during an aggressive roster teardown, the franchise finds itself hurtling toward a lost season. Head coach Shane Steichen stated he is not currently considering benching Daniel Jones, but the on-field product argues otherwise. Jones threw his seventh interception of the year in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, dragging his QBR down to 40.3—good for 31st in the league, worse than the mark that prompted the Giants to release him midway through the 2024 campaign.
Less than a year removed from an Achilles tear, Jones displays minimal mobility and severe discomfort when throwing on the move, mirroring Kirk Cousins’ difficult recovery trajectory in Atlanta. Next Gen Stats show Jones averaging a meager 1.3 yards per attempt when throwing on the run this season, a steep drop from 7.7 yards per throw in 2025. His completion percentage on the move has plummeted from 73% to 25%, while his success rate cratered from 50% to 13%. Sitting Jones in favor of young backups Anthony Richardson or Riley Leonard would protect the veteran from further physical harm and halt the entrenchment of damaging habits.
The Double A-Gap Blitz Revival
Defensive coordinators across the NFL continue to weaponize Jim Johnson’s signature double A-gap fronts to put quarterbacks in a mental blender. Pro Football Focus data shows quarterbacks facing 684 dropbacks against these looks in 2025, with the league on pace to reach 928 such snaps through 2026. Passers are averaging -0.24 expected points added per play on those specific defensive snaps, facing constant pressure from two linebackers flanking the center while defensive linemen crowd the guards.
Disclaimer: The fantasy and market insights provided are for informational and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial or betting advice.
