2023-07-23 20:30:25
hike
The market focuses on the results of the three major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and waits and sees the forecast of future interest rate trends. Among them, interest rate futures show that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 0.25% this week to a range between 5.25% and 5.5% has reached 99.2%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates between 5% and 5.25% is only 0.8%. ING pointed out that the Federal Reserve will resume raising interest rates this month after keeping interest rates unchanged in June. Although inflation has slowed to 3% in June, it is still higher than the target, and the job market is tight. I believe the authorities will not take risks for the time being. The bank expects to suspend one rate hike in September, but there is still a chance to raise interest rates before the end of the year. The bank expects 5.25% to 5.5% to mark the peak of US interest rates.
In addition, the market expects the European Central Bank to continue its interest rate hike cycle, and will raise interest rates by 0.25% this week, raising interest rates to 3.75%, 4.25%, and 4.5%. Since European inflation in June is still as high as 5.5%, which is still far from the 2% target, it is believed that interest rates will still be raised in September.
Japan announced last week that inflation rose to 3.3% in June, and core inflation rose to 4.2%. The market generally believes that the Bank of Japan will maintain the ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged, and there is no urgency to adjust the yield curve control (YCC). It is expected that USD/JPY could break through 142.5 in the short term, and even challenge 145. Last Friday, USD/JPY was at 141.82, up 1.3%, and JPY/HKD was at 5.513, down 1.3%.
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