2023-08-15 03:30:11
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.5% over a quarter in seasonally adjusted data, and by 6% at an annualized rate. An unprecedented dynamism since the fourth quarter of 2020.
The consensus of economists from the Bloomberg agency expected much more modest growth of 0.8%, after +0.9% in the first quarter (a figure revised upwards on Tuesday, against +0.7% announced in June).
The engine of growth over the April-June period was exports (+3.2% over one quarter), while imports fell by 4.3% thanks to the decline in world hydrocarbon prices. The net contribution of foreign trade to GDP was thus largely positive (+1.8%).
“Japanese exports have recovered as the crisis in automotive supply chains has subsided and the depreciation of the yen has provided support,” noted in a recent note Ryutaro Kono, chief economist of BNP Paribas. in Japan.
The massive return of foreign tourists to Japan since the lifting of health restrictions in the archipelago at the end of 2022 has also contributed to the acceleration of national GDP.
Japan “is one of the few advanced economies that is doing better in 2023 than in 2022”, observed the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the end of July, who raised its growth forecast to 1.4% for the country this year, compared to 1% in 2022.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects growth of 1.3% for the whole of the 2023/24 financial year, which began on April 1.
Drop in consumption
But the downside is household consumption, which fell 0.5% over the past quarter, after rising 0.6% at the start of the year.
Because the purchasing power of Japanese consumers is weakened by the persistent weakness of the yen, combined with inflation that remains very high for Japanese standards (3.3% on average over the April-June period, excluding fresh produce).
According to Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific research at Capital Economics, Japanese growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year as the real (inflation-adjusted) disposable income of Japanese households is expected to continue to fall.
In addition, the boom in Japanese automotive exports thanks to newfound fluidity in supply chains “should not last” because Japanese manufacturers are lagging behind in the electric segment, Mr. Thieliant further estimated in a note published on Tuesday.
Demand from China, whose economic recovery is difficult, is already at half mast, and demand from the United States and Europe for “made in Japan” products is expected to slow as their respective economies decelerate.
In the second quarter, “only exports exceeded estimates while consumption weakened and remained below pre-pandemic levels”, also tempered Taro Saito of the NLI research institute.
Non-residential investment by private companies in Japan also stagnated over the past quarter, after jumping 1.8% at the start of the year.
So the probably temporary strength of Japanese GDP in the second quarter should not encourage the Bank of Japan to rush to normalize its monetary policy, added Mr. Saito.
At the end of July, the BoJ made its control of Japanese bond yields more flexible but did not call into question its still ultra-accommodating monetary policy, which is totally the opposite of Western countries.
The BoJ continues to believe that its objective of stable inflation at 2% “is not yet in sight” and had stressed that “extremely high uncertainties” surround the future development of economic activity and prices in Japan. .
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