11:45 p.m., January 8, 2022
Three months before the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron’s main strength lies in the weakness of his opponents. Ifop questioned the French on the personality who could, in their eyes, do better in power than the outgoing president. The verdict is final. On the economy, security and the fight against Covid-19, the most frequent answer is: “none” of the candidates. The management of the pandemic appears to be one of its strengths: a clear majority (57%) think that none of its rivals would do better than him in this field.
Among her opponents, Marine Le Pen, however, is doing well: 25% of the French believe that the candidate of the National Rally (RN) would do “better” than Macron. They are in particular 22% to judge that it would be better on safety, ahead of Eric Zemmour (14%) and Valérie Pécresse (13%). But the doubt about her credibility still weighs heavily: almost half of the French (48%) are convinced that, if elected, she would do “worse” than the current head of state, 27% deeming that she does not would do “neither better nor worse”. On this ground, the president of the RN wins her duel with Zemmour: they are only 18% to estimate that the polemicist would do “better” than Macron, and 54% to judge that he would do “less well”.
Valérie Pécresse still has a lot to prove in the eyes of the French
Although a candidate for a government party, Les Républicains (LR), Valérie Pécresse still has a lot to prove in the eyes of the French: they are only 17% from the principle that she would do “better” at the Elysee Palace. Not better, but not worse either. Only a minority (30%) considers that it would do “less well”, the majority of those polled considering, at 53%, that it would do “neither better nor worse”. If there is no enthusiasm for her, the prospect of seeing her move to the Elysee Palace does not therefore seem prohibitive for the majority. And “if we add those who think it would do ‘better’ and those who answer ‘neither’, it reaches 70%,” said Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop. No candidate reaches that level. “
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In the economic field, the LR candidate is also considered – slightly – more credible than her competitors: 16% believe that she would do “better” than Macron, against 12% for Marine Le Pen and only 6% for Zemmour. Above all, Pécresse is, by far, considered the most capable of winning against Macron in 2022: 46% of respondents think she could beat him. Many believe in its chances: on the right, of course (85% of LR sympathizers), but also in the RN (46%) and on the left (46% of EELV sympathizers and 45% of socialists).
In contrast, only a minority (32%) think Le Pen could beat Macron, and less than a quarter (21%) that Zemmour would make it. “For the French, if Pécresse is in the second round, there is a match, while if Le Pen and Zemmour are there, there is no match,” concludes Dabi. What to reinforce the strategy of the candidate LR: to become, tomorrow, the receptacle of “everything except Macron”.