2023-05-30 03:30:19
AHalfway through the hundred days, the deadline for which he himself set, Emmanuel Macron achieved his first objective: he managed to stem his fall in the polls while the left is still mobilized against the pension reform. In the FIFG barometer-The Sunday newspaper paru the 28th, its approval rating is at 28%, up 2 points from the previous month. In the BVA-RTL survey, published two days earlier, it climbed to 32% (+ 6 points). That of its Prime Minister, who appeared a few weeks ago in very great difficulty, follows the same evolution. However, Elisabeth Borne lacks a clear roadmap and a solid political mechanism to turn the page on this first annus horribilis.
The need to set a course and mark a new start seems all the stronger as the budgetary context is no longer the same as it was a year ago. Against the backdrop of rising interest rates, the state of public finances is beginning to be scrutinized with suspicion by rating agencies, Brussels and France’s European partners. The fear of seeing Standard & Poor’s lower its rating by one notch in early June, as Fitch did in April, is pushing the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, to multiply credit freezes and explanations to try to convince that the debt (109.6% of GDP forecast in 2023) and the deficits (4.9% of GDP) are under control and will decrease over time.
The extension of the retirement age, adopted in defiance of unpopularity and the fire of criticism, fits in well with the dual concern of reducing the projected deficit of pension insurance and increasing the volume of work.
The government is nonetheless under surveillance, because France still has a high level of debt, public spending and compulsory levies which hamper its room for manoeuvre. She is just beginning to rediscover it, while the 2022 presidential campaign has remained entirely under the sign of free money and collective doping at “whatever the cost”.
Speechless
In this context, the publication on May 22 of the report by economist Jean Pisani-Ferry and Inspector General of Finance Selma Mahfouz on “The economic impact of climate action” had the effect of a little bomb. Written with the assistance of France Strategy, the forward-looking organization attached to Matignon, the document highlights the extent to which the country is collectively ill-prepared for the ecological transition, described as “a negative supply shock which is accompanied by a need to finance investments whose profitability is not certain”.
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