Jerome Powell’s Speech and Market Update: Impact on Investment Strategy and Key Economic Data

2023-12-01 14:41:38

Investors are cautiously awaiting U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech later, hoping to find clues about interest rate cuts or the direction of future monetary policy. Major U.S. stock indexes rose on Friday (12/1) Fall and fall.

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagerose more than 30 points or nearly 0.1%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell more than 50 points or nearly 0.4%.S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.1%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index fell nearly 0.7%.

Investors are trying to assess whether November’s strong gains across asset classes can lead to further gains. Some believe the market’s optimistic bets on the timing of a rate cut next year are over-interpreting recent comments from Fed officials. Fed Chairman Lonzo Ball will speak Friday at Spelman College in Atlanta.

Sébastien Barbé, head of emerging markets research and strategy at Credit Agricole, said: “The market is wondering whether a U.S. interest rate cut next year has been anticipated in advance. From Bauer’s perspective, he warned the market not to be too optimistic about possible interest rate cuts in order to maintain sufficient monetary conditions. Tightening to ensure that the cooling of inflation is sustainable.”

U.S. data released yesterday showed that a key inflation indicator eased in October, adding to the Fed’s case for ending monetary tightening and supporting the argument that it boosted global markets last month.

S&P 500 IndexIt had one of the strongest Novembers on record, with the MSCI All Country World Index posting its third-biggest monthly gain in the past decade. The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index suffered its largest decline in a year, and U.S. bond yields plummeted by about 60 basis points this month.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, believes that almost all indicators were quite strong last month, and there is still a good chance for traders to chase gains in December.

In terms of energy, international oil prices held on to losses after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner countries (OPEC+) pledged to further cut production, but did not disclose specific details.Brent crude oil February was trading below $81 a barrel, after falling 2.4% in the previous session.

As of 22:00 Taipei time on Friday (1st): Focus stocks:

apple (AAPL-US) fell 0.19% in early trading to $189.53 per share

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter, that Apple and Paramount Worldwide (TO-US) discuss mutual streaming cooperation, possibly launching a subscription service that combines Apple TV + and Paramount + at a discount. However, the discussion is still at an early stage, and it is unclear what the possible solution for bundling two streaming media streams is.

Pfizer (PFE-US) fell 6.33% in early trading to $28.54 per share

Pfizer plans to abandon development of its experimental weight-loss drug after more than half of patients in a mid-stage study had to stop taking it due to side effects such as nausea and vomiting, foreign media reported. The company said in a statement on Friday that it will continue to develop a once-daily pill called Danuglipron in the hope of improving its tolerability.

Dell (DELL-US) fell 8.46% in early trading to $69.45 per share

Affected by the continued sluggish demand for personal computers (PCs) from enterprises, Dell Technologies’ Q3 revenue fell 10% year-on-year to US$22.251 billion, which was lower than analysts’ average forecast of US$23 billion. Under Non-GAAP accounting standards, net profit was US$1.389 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19%; diluted earnings per share reported US$1.88, which was better than analysts’ average estimate of US$1.47 and US$2.30 in the same period last year.

Today’s key economic data: The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in November reported 46.7, expected 47.7, and the previous value 46.7. Wall Street analysis:

Bank of America data shows that an investment strategy that invests 60% of the portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds achieved its best performance in November since the rebound after the collapse of the Soviet Union more than 30 years ago. Typically, a pullback follows a bad month.

Goldman Sachs recently predicted that international oil prices may continue to rise, with oil prices likely to trade in a range of US$70 to US$100 per barrel by next year, citing the risk of supply disruptions next year. OPEC+ oil-producing countries held a meeting yesterday, and member states each announced “voluntary” production cuts during the first quarter of next year, with a total scale of 2.193 million barrels per day, of which Saudi Arabia and Russia reduced production by 1 million barrels and 500,000 barrels respectively.

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