Journalism Program Ranked No. 8

Baffert Returns to Kentucky Derby with Citizen Bull; ‘Journalism’ Favored

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Archyde.com) — The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to run Saturday at Churchill Downs, with a full field of 20 horses vying for the roses. This year’s race marks the return of legendary trainer bob Baffert, who saddles Citizen Bull, the 2-year-old champion, a horse attempting to break a long-standing jinx from the dreaded No. 1 post position.

Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner, faces a unique challenge this year. No horse has won the derby from the inside post since Ferdinand in 1986. The No. 1 position is considered disadvantageous due to the crowded conditions on the first turn, forcing the horse to either surge to the lead or drop far back to avoid being boxed in.

“It is indeed what it is,” Baffert said after the draw. “You can’t worry about it once you have the draw. The horses have to be ready to roll. “He does have a lot of speed, and it looks like once you get the one hole, I don’t need to give instructions what he’s going to have to do away from he’s going to have to leave there running and but the horse wants to do that anyway.”

Jockey Martin Garcia will likely be instructed to aggressively send Citizen Bull to the front, hoping to establish a manageable pace.

The morning-line favorite, Journalism, drew the No. 8 post, while Sovereignty will start from the No. 18 hole, a position that suits the colt’s come-from-behind style. Sandman, another closer, drew the No.17 post, a position from which no horse has ever won the Derby.

Complete List of Horses, Jockeys, and Odds:

Here’s the complete list of horses, their jockeys, and morning-line odds:

1. Citizen Bull, Martin Garcia (20-1)
2. Neoequos, flavien Prat (30-1)
3. Final Gambit, Luan Machado (30-1)
4. Rodriguez, Mike Smith (12-1)
5. American Promise, Nik Juarez (30-1)
6. admire Daytona, Christophe Lemaire (30-1)
7. Luxor cafe, Joao Moreira (15-1)
8. Journalism, Umberto Rispoli (3-1)
9. Burnham Square, Brian Hernandez Jr. (12-1)
10. Grande, John Velazquez (20-1)
11. Flying Mohawk, Joe Ramos (30-1)
12. East Avenue, Manny Franco (20-1)
13. Publisher, Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
14. Tiztastic,Joel Rosario (20-1)
15. Render Judgement,Julien Leparoux (30-1)
16. Coal Battle,Juan Vargas (30-1)
17. Sandman,Jose Ortiz (6-1)
18. Sovereignty,junior Alvarado (5-1)
19. Chunk of Gold,Jareth Loveberry (30-1)
20. Owen Almighty,Javier Castellano (30-1)

Also Eligible:

1. Baeza,Flavien Prat

Historical Post Position Data

Historically,horses starting from inside positions (1-10) have a higher win rate in the Derby.

Here’s a breakdown of Derby winners by post position:

Post 1 – 8 winners
Post 2 – 7 winners
Post 3 – 6 winners
Post 4 – 5 winners
Post 5 – 10 winners
Post 6 – 2 winners
Post 7 – 8 winners
Post 8 – 9 winners
Post 9 – 4 winners
Post 10 – 9 winners
Post 11 – 2 winners
post 12 – 3 winners
Post 13 – 5 winners
Post 14 – 2 winners
Post 15 – 6 winners
Post 16 – 4 winners
Post 17 – 0 winners
Post 18 – 2 winners
Post 19 – 1 winner
Post 20 – 2 winners

Mott Seeks Another Derby Win with sovereignty

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who won the 2019 Derby via disqualification with Country House, returns with Sovereignty. Mott, who made his Derby debut in 1984, is 1 for 13 in the Run for the roses.

Briley and Coal Battle Make Derby Debut

trainer Lonnie Briley and owner Robbie Norman are set to experience their first Kentucky Derby with Coal Battle. Briley, known for his meticulous approach to horse selection, partnered with Norman to find the right horse at a yearling sale in Texas.

American Pharoah Still a Fan Favorite

Ten years after his Triple Crown victory, American Pharoah continues to draw crowds at Coolmore America’s Ashford stud. The champion colt swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in 2015, becoming the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Given Evelyn’s insights, who does she see as the main threat to win the Kentucky Derby?

Kentucky Derby 2025 Preview: A Conversation with Race Analyst, Evelyn Reed

The 151st Kentucky Derby is just around the corner, and the anticipation is building! With legendary trainer Bob Baffert returning and a field of 20 horses ready to run, the “Run for the Roses” promises to be a thrilling event. We sat down with Evelyn Reed, a seasoned race analyst, to get her insights on this year’s contenders and potential upsets.

Archyde: Welcome,Evelyn! The buzz around the Derby is electric. What are your initial thoughts on the field this year?

Evelyn Reed: Thanks for having me! The field is incredibly competitive. We have established names like Bob Baffert returning with Citizen Bull,which adds intrigue.The No. 1 post position always presents a unique challenge, and it will be engaging to see how Martin Garcia strategizes. Beyond him, there’s genuine quality throughout, making this Derby notably challenging to call. We’re seeing a high level of talent among the horses.

Archyde: Citizen bull’s position is a meaningful talking point. How do you assess his chances from the dreaded No. 1 post?

Evelyn Reed: The No. 1 post does present a disadvantage. the goal for Citizen Bull is to secure a good position early, and not get bullied by the other horses, they need to leave quickly. It will be crucial for jockey Martin Garcia to get him out cleanly. the speed is there, as Baffert mentioned, but it’s about navigating that first turn without getting boxed in. It adds a layer of excitement. The pressure is on.

Archyde: Journalism is the morning-line favorite. What makes this horse stand out?

Evelyn Reed: Journalism has shown consistency and has a favorable post position at No. 8. He’s demonstrated an ability to handle the pressure of big races. This horse has consistently shown potential and is highly likely to perform well.

Archyde: Other horses like Sovereignty and Sandman have engaging starting positions.What do you expect from them?

Evelyn Reed: Sovereignty in the No. 18 position could benefit from running from behind and staying clear of the chaos early. Sandman in the No. 17 position will also be interesting to watch as no horse has ever won from that post, but horses like Sandman can be a great “dark horse” to watch for.

Archyde: The historical data reveals interesting trends regarding post positions. How much weight should we give to history when handicapping the race?

Evelyn Reed: Historical data is a good guideline, of course. The stats show winners coming from the inside posts, but a horse’s fitness, the jockey’s skill, and the track conditions all play a role. We can’t ignore history, but the dynamics of the race often trump the historical trends.

Archyde: Bill Mott is making his Derby comeback with Sovereignty. what is the perspective for Mott?

Evelyn Reed: Bill Mott’s experience speaks volumes. He’s known for training strong horses, and a win at this point would be a great accomplishment. Sovereignty’s running style could be an advantage if the early pace is too aggressive.It all depends on how the race unfolds.

Archyde: Let’s talk about a possible long shot, maybe Coal Battle for Lonnie Briley. What are your thoughts?

Evelyn Reed: We are always looking at those Derby debutante horses. We are looking to see how it all connects and Briley’s meticulous approach to sourcing the horse is key. Coal Battle could take many by surprise. This also connects with a growing trend to look for overlooked names and it gives a good prospect to have a good start.

Archyde: who do you see as the main threat to win, and the dark horse that could surprise us?

Evelyn Reed: Journalism is the horse to beat, given its form and post position. However, the Derby always throws curveballs. A dark horse to watch is Sandman. The 6-1 odds and style can make them very dangerous, even from the No. 17 post. It’s going to be a thrilling race!

Archyde: Evelyn, thank you for your time and insights. We’re all looking forward to an exciting Kentucky Derby!

Evelyn Reed: My pleasure! I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.