Jumblatt’s move… Does it establish a settlement on the sponsor’s terms?

Munir Al-Rabi` wrote in the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida:

The Lebanese were busy with Walid Jumblatt’s meeting with the “Hezbollah” delegation. Analyzes and major questions are circulating behind the scenes in Lebanon about the purpose of this step, especially since it followed a visit made by his son Taymour to the Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rai.

In a clear path of balance that Jumblatt is trying to establish in his positions and on the domestic scene, this movement comes two weeks away from Lebanon’s entry into the constitutional period for the election of a new president, which is the main dish on the discussion table between the two parties.

The meeting called for a lot of speculation, as some of them criticized Jumblatt as carrying out a coup, and the other seemed to understand his move because it would have a foundational dimension for the next stage, especially by seeking to conclude a settlement to avoid a vacuum and not to repeat the experience of Michel Aoun, ie two years of disruption until reaching the presidency.

The content of his talks with the party confirms that Jumblatt did not change his positions, but proceeded with his negotiations from the position of the victorious force in the elections, and therefore the only Druze representative on the scene, as he will have the greatest influence in the election of the president, because the votes of his parliamentary bloc will secure victory for any of the candidates.

Practically, according to well-informed sources, Jumblatt wanted to open a new political path through which to prepare to go to a settlement, and it does not separate external developments from the internal reality, and therefore looks at the changes in the region and the region, and works on its basis in an attempt to spare Lebanon from entering into any escalatory path. This was evident in him with Hezbollah.

In a clearer sense, Jumblatt is observing the developments of the situation in the region, and finds that there are two possibilities; The first is the failure of the negotiations of the nuclear agreement and thus going to a major escalation and trying to avoid a clash in Lebanon. The other possibility is to go to agreements at the nuclear level and at the level of border demarcation, and therefore the stage will be governed by reaching a consensus or settlement, so he decided to be the initiator of it because he considers that Lebanon will be governed by this settlement.

Follow-up sources reveal the content of the meeting between Jumblatt and the party’s delegation, which can be summed up in three main headings: military, political, and economic strategy. Regarding the strategic and military file, Jumblatt asked about the process of launching marches towards the Karish field, and he hoped that it would not be an Iranian message linked to the Vienna negotiations on the nuclear agreement. Possibly, and cannot pay the bill for regional developments, declaring that the Americans are working to reach a solution, but the party’s delegation was not convinced, considering that the Americans promised a year ago that Egyptian gas would reach Lebanon and so far it has not arrived.

The party’s delegation stressed that if the Israelis did not respond and insisted on extracting gas before Lebanon began drilling, and in light of the continuation of the siege, the party would prefer death in war than that the Lebanese die humiliated at the doors of the furnaces.

On the political issue, Jumblatt proposed going to the search for a political settlement, which requires the election of a consensual president, instead of insisting on a provocative figure or one affiliated with any party. The maturity date is on schedule, because Lebanon cannot afford to enter a vacuum, so the party’s answer was that it was ready for consensus.

As for the economic issue, Jumblatt clearly asked the party delegation about their position on the agreement with the IMF, and on the necessity of forming a sovereign fund that protects the oil wealth, and stressed the need to approve an electricity plan, because the oil and electricity file cannot be left in the hands of Gibran Bassil, and Jumblatt considered that the cost of Bassil’s support from the party was harsh on everyone and on Lebanon.

According to sources close to Jumblatt, he did not change his positions, but declared them openly before Hezbollah on the basis of the need to reach a compromise formula while neutralizing the controversial files. This is what Jumblatt insisted on emphasizing by sending his son Taymour to the Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai, to stress the preservation of constants and the search for common denominators that would lead to providing the appropriate conditions for electing a president of the republic. different in the region. It is the path of Fatah in Lebanon, and it must have something to do with it regionally and internationally, while Jumblatt assured the party’s delegation that he was keen to hear the answers of the party and its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah personally to all these questions and ideas.

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