Kasikorn Bank Public Company Limited or KBANK views the movement of the baht next week (December 12-16) at the level of 34.50-35.30 baht / dollar, while the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors to be monitored, namely: Fed’s Monetary Policy Meeting and Dot Plots, ECB and BOE Meeting Results, Foreign Capital Flow (Flow), and China’s Stance on COVID-19 Measures
Key U.S. economic figures include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), retail sales and industrial production data for November, the New York Fed’s Manufacturing Survey. and the results of the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey for December. and the number of weekly unemployment benefits The market is also looking forward to the preliminary PMI index for the month. December of the US, Eurozone and England, as well as China’s November economic numbers such as industrial production, retail sales and house price index.
with the baht moving volatilely The baht flipped from its highest level in nearly six months at 34.58 baht/dollar to gradually depreciate early-mid-week amid the dollar’s support from the Fed’s interest rate hike. In addition, many Asian currencies face depreciation pressure. (Despite the news that the Chinese government is preparing to relax COVID measures) due to concerns about the weak signal of the global economy. However, the baht once again appreciated below the level of 35.00 baht/dollar in line with foreign investors’ net buying of Thai bonds.
In addition, the dollar was negatively influenced by US labor market data. coming out weak (Number of continuous unemployment claims in the US increased to a 10-month high at 1.67 million), further supporting the possibility that the Fed will begin to slow down its outlook for policy rate hikes at the FOMC meeting on Dec. 13-14. The baht partially slowed down at the end of the week before entering the long holiday in the domestic market.
However, on Friday, December 9, 2022, the baht closed at 34.79 baht / dollar, compared to 34.77 baht / dollar on the previous Friday (December 2) for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors. Between December 6-9, 2022, even though foreign investors sold net Thai shares of 5,148 million baht, they had net inflows into the Thai bond market of 14,149 million baht (net purchase of 17,565 million baht minus expired bonds). 3,416 million baht)