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2022.08.26
On August 28, the 17th ・Keeneland C(GIII, turf 1200m) will be held.
Looking at the runners scheduled to run, the 3-year-old horse that won the Aoi Stakes in its previous outingWin MarvelLast year’s winner, led byRayhariaAnd won by cutting off Ibis SD with a brilliant trailing legbelieverthe winner of the year before last and the runner-up last yeareighteen girlHe won his first open victory at the Fukushima TV OP in the previous race.opal charmewill also participate.
The 6th to 9th favorites in the middle hole also performed well, with 7 betting tickets, and in 2015 Ukiyonokaze won from the 8th favorite. Also, it is better to pay attention to the many good runs of fillies such as 2021 Eighteen Girl, 2020 Dimension, and 2018 Peisha Felicita.
This time, Keenland C’s “dangerous hot horse” is the 3-year-old horse that won the Aoi Stakes in his previous race.Win Marvelis.
■Last year, the sprint world was dominated by 3-year-old horses, but…
The 3-year-old Win Marvel (3 horses, Miura Masashi Miyama Stable) will face his old horse for the first time. Although he took six races to advance, he showed a glimpse of his talent from an early stage, such as winning the Fukushima 2-year Stakes in the next race after winning. In the first round of the new year, the Falcon S lost to 15th place, but won the Tachibana S, which was the Listed race in the next race, with a good time of 0.1 seconds behind the record. In the following Aoi Stakes, when he entered the straight from 8th place on the road with outstanding resistance, he made a strong cut and won a complete victory with two and a half horses. With two consecutive wins, he won his first graded prize. He is extremely good at the 1200m race with 3 wins, 2 finishes and 1 out of 7 races.
However, there are two points of concern this time. that is,”Low previous run level“When”presence of isomorphism“is.
First of all, I will talk about “low level of previous race”. If you look at the results of the horses that ran the Aoi Stakes in their previous race and performed well in the bulletin board,
・Aoi S runaway horse
└ 1st place[Win Marvel]
→ Next race “Keenland C” scheduled
└ 2nd[Comstock Road]
→ Next run “Paradise S (6 popular) 4th”, 2nd run “Fukushima TV OP (1 popular) 4th”
└ 3rd place[Breathless Lee]
→ Next race “Unzen Special (1 favorite) 2nd”, 2nd race “Yabakei Special (2 favorites) 3rd”
└ 4th[Win Monarch]
→ time to go undecided
└5[Kaika no Kiseki]
→ Next run “Ena special (1 favorite) 10th”, 2nd run “Unzen special (3 favorites) 7”
In this way, none of the 2nd to 5th-placed runners, including runners who did not start in the next race, won the previous race, and while all of them ran with a certain amount of popularity due to their “light weight,” they are still popular. I can’t respond to it and I’m running mediocre.
This was due to the fact that the “head wind” was blowing stronger in the straight line than in the usual Aoi Stakes, making it tougher for runners running away and in the lead, and that the horses that were able to create a wall in front of the midfield were more likely to develop. can be considered as In other words, it was a race where the top performing runners were blessed with good developments, and the difference between the jockeys was large. Considering that all the top-ranked horses are running mediocre in their next race, it seems that the story will change if the “most blessed” horse can run well in the Keeneland Cup this time.
Next, I would like to explain “the existence of isomorphism”. In the Aoi Stakes of the previous race, he managed to come to terms with the midfielder’s makome, and even in the four corners, he felt a good response. In the straight line, the front opened up beautifully and it was slowing down for a while, but after the last 300m, it was returned to the right front and it was a victory that went through the 1F mark, but originally it was dexterity to get a certain position early at the gate. have.
However, this time, old horses with “good rank” as a weapon are gathered.It has a leg quality similar to Win Marvel, which is stable in short runs.Shigeru Pink Rubyfinished second in the Hakodate Sprint Stakesjubilee headNHK Mile C also hit the escape handToshin Macauand winning streak aheadVatreniIt can be assumed that the front group will be crowded and flow.
Win Marvel has room for Ten’s speed to pass even if he joins this team, and he is trying to get a position because he has the speed to reach Ten in the early 33 seconds to the late 33 seconds in the last 5 runs. However, the lead horses listed above are slower than Ten, and there is a possibility that Win Marvel, who has shown a side of winning in the previous race, will take the lead.
If that happens, there is a possibility that he will be targeted by old horses who are chasing a good position. As a 3-year-old horse, weight may be an advantage, but there is also a high possibility that the horse will feel the pressure and flinch and drop the bulletin board.
From the above concerns, we also considered the betting ticket-like appeal, and one of the most popularWin Marvelof”Erase”. If you imagine this year’s member composition and pace on the road,jubilee headcentered onMeisho Mimosa、roadmax、Vatreni、VentovoceTherefore, we would like to give higher rankings to horses that can start racing from a certain position and can respond instantly even at a high pace.
Sentence Koki Nishidate (Spread Editorial Department)