The Chinese Communist aircraft carrier Liaoning recently conducted exercises in the eastern waters of Taiwan, posing a threat to the Taiwan Strait. Figure: Retrieved from the official website of the Chinese Ministry of Defense (file photo)
Three months into the Russian-Ukrainian war, U.S. President Biden blurted out at the joint press conference of the U.S.-Japan leaders summit at the end of May, expressing his willingness to use force to defend Taiwan, which once caused an uproar. Talking about the possibility and possible results of China’s use of force against Taiwan, the US “Cable News Network” (CNN) interviewed many analysts and believed that although China has the ability to attack the island, it will also pay a bloody price, and specifically named China The navy believes that the attack on Taiwan will be a massacre for the Chinese navy.
“CNN” published an article today with the title “China has the ability to seize Taiwan, but it will pay an extremely bloody price.” If China tries to seize Taiwan, can the United States and its allies be able to stop it? The report quoted analysts who pointed out that it may not be able to stop, and pointed out that China may surpass Taiwan and its allies such as the United States and Japan in the number of troops, missiles, and ships. If China is determined to seize Taiwan, it may be possible.
Analysts, however, have warned that while China has a chance to win, any victory will come at a bloody price to Beijing and its opponents. Analysts mentioned that China’s invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complicated than the landing of the Allied forces in Normandy, France in World War II.
The report analyzes the three major focuses of naval warfare, land warfare, and air warfare. In order to achieve a secure victory, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is bound to have to move thousands of tanks, artillery, armored vehicles, rocket launchers and troops together through aircraft carriers. Such a large-scale The troops have to pass through the 177-kilometer Taiwan Strait, which is undoubtedly the best target. But China has the world’s most advanced merchant fleet, a massive coast guard, informally allied fishing vessels, or maritime militias, and hundreds of additional vessels at Beijing’s disposal.
In terms of land warfare, even if China is willing to take these risks and manage to get a large number of troops ashore, its troops will face another uphill battle, first of all, to find a suitable landing point. Experts point out that there are only 14 places in Taiwan. The beaches that meet the requirements, and Taiwan is very clear about which ones meet the landing conditions. Compared with Taiwan, the movement of the Chinese army is more laborious. If you want to land on the island by airborne troops, the lack of paratroopers in the PLA also reduces the possibility. .
In the air combat part, China has a huge advantage. The PLA has nearly 1,600 fighters, while Taiwan has less than 300, and the United States has more than 2,700 fighters. However, scattered around the world, China may seek air combat advantages in early battles. But even so, China will still face a strong test in the air combat sector, because Taiwan and the United States have an agreement to provide Taiwan with Stinger air defense missiles and Patriot air defense missile systems.
Talking about the possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan, Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asian program of the German Marshall Fund, believes that the chance is small. He pointed out that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks confidence in attacking Taiwan, and the Ukrainian-Russian war is even more serious. It highlights the difficulty of China’s attack on Taiwan. It is far more difficult to cross a hundred miles of water than to cross land.
At the same time, CNN also pointed out in the report that if the People’s Liberation Army does not take full-scale offensive operations, the possible target may be Taiping Island first.