LIVE – Covid-19: for epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, “the worst-case scenario is moving away”



Arnaud Fontanet, in Paris, November 25, 2020.


© STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN
Arnaud Fontanet, in Paris, November 25, 2020.

In summary :

– After the adoption on Saturday of controversial bill transforming the health pass into a vaccination pass, deputies in particular rebellious, socialists, communists, ecologists but also of the right filed two referrals to the Constitutional Council. This makes the date of entry into force of this new mechanism for the fight against the epidemic uncertain.

– If a lull seems to be taking shape in the critical care services which receive Covid patients, with 3,852 seriously ill hospitalized in these services against 3,985 on Wednesday, this drop is not observed, for the moment, in the number total hospitalized patients (24,544, against 23,889 on Wednesday).

No general public for the China Olympics, but spectator invitations. The organizing committee of the Beijing Winter Olympics (from February 4 to 20) announced on Monday that it was canceling the sale of tickets to the general public due to an epidemic situation. “complicated”, while however promising to welcome spectators by invitation. “In order to protect the health and safety of staff and spectators […], it was decided to adjust the initial ticket sales plan and [à la place] to organize the arrival of spectators on the competition sites”, says a statement. As part of its imposing Olympic “sanitary bubble”, China had so far decided to prohibit the arrival of foreign fans, leaving the possibility to only Chinese supporters to attend the competitions.

Unequal dynamics among our neighbours. When France seems to have reached a peak of contaminations after several weeks of unprecedented outbreaks caused by omicron, bordering countries are experiencing different epidemic situations. As usual several weeks ahead of the progression of the epidemic, the United Kingdom is recording a sustained drop in new cases, with now around 1,500 positives detected on average over the last seven days per million inhabitants, according to Johns Hopkins University. Conversely, Germany (800) and Italy (3,000) appear to be still in the expansion phase of the virus. If the peak is confirmed in France, the contaminations are however still very high, with nearly 4,400 new cases on average over the last week per million inhabitants.

A second day of mobilizations in schools on Thursday. After the very strong mobilization of January 13, seven unions are calling for a new day of action this Thursday, January 20 in schools, colleges and high schools, to demand “strong answers” face au «chaos» caused by the health crisis and massive investments in education. «Announcements made by the Prime Minister and the minister of national education are not sufficient. Nevertheless, they showed that the staff strike and all the actors of the educational community has a strong impact, and that we can obtain satisfaction on our claims”, can we read in the press release signed by Snes-FSU, CGT Educ’Action, FO, Sud Education, FCPE, Voix lycéenne, MNL and FIDL.

“Light at the end of the tunnel” in the UK? Special envoy of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Covid in the archipelago, Dr David Nabarro is optimistic because of the slight ebb of the epidemic in the archipelago: “Looking at the British situation, one might think that the light is at the end of the tunnel. Although I think it’s going to be bumpy before I get to the end.”, he said on Monday on Sky news. However, the WHO scientist does not want to get carried away too quickly: “Even if it is possible to begin to imagine that the end of the pandemic is not far away, everyone must be prepared for the possibility that there are new mutations of the virus, or that there are other challenges, including other omicron waves.”

The trial of the November 13 attacks still delayed by the Covid. The hearing will not resume until at least January 25, one of the defendants having tested positive over the weekend. Ali El Haddad Asufi, one of 11 defendants appearing in custody at the trial, was showing symptoms in court on Friday and had been subjected to a self-test in the evening, which was found to be positive. He was also subjected to a PCR test which “tested positive”, said Monday morning the president of the special assize court of Paris, Jean-Louis Périès. The health situation had already disrupted the resumption of the trial in early January, after a two-week break: the main defendant, Salah Abdeslam, had contracted Covid in prison at the end of December and was still positive. A counter-expertise having concluded on January 10 that Salah Abdeslam was ‘cured’ and ‘not contagious’, the hearing resumed the next day with the start of the interrogations of the defendants.

Athletes coming to France will ultimately have to be vaccinated. Nice 180 ° turn. While French Sports Minister Roxana Maracineanu had mentioned the implementation on January 7 “of a health bubble” allowing unvaccinated players to play Roland-Garros, all athletes coming to France – including professionals – for a competition will ultimately have to be vaccinated to enter a sports arena, government sources said on Monday. Asked earlier in the morning on BFMTV, Christophe Castaner, president of the LREM group in the Assembly, had already gone in this direction: «Mr. Djokovic is not intended to play [en France] if he does not respect a rule that applies to spectators, ball boys, professionals who go to work and run a shop at Roland-Garros. There is no question that for great athletes, there is an exception to the rule. The rule applies to everyone.

Restaurateurs will not check the vaccination pass in their establishments. It is the vice-president of Umih-restoration, Jean Terlon, who affirms this Monday on France Info : «The identity check will not be applied because, one, it is not mandatory, and secondly, we are not trained to judge the validity of this pass. Definitively adopted Sunday evening at the National Assembly, the vaccination pass should come into force “at the end of the week”. But among restaurateurs, this new tool goes badly. “We already have enough problems in catering today., regrets Jean Terlon, who believes that pass checks at the entrance to restaurants will cause “sterile discussions” with customers or even “Conflicts”.

China: daily cases at their highest for two years three weeks before the Olympics. The number of Covid-19 cases in China rose to its highest level since March 2020 on Monday, as Beijing scrambles to eradicate the highly contagious omicron variant three weeks from now. Winter Olympics. On Monday, 223 new cases were reported in China, including 80 in the virus-hit port city of Tianjin, and nine others, including cases of omicron, in Guangzhou in the south of the country.

The Pfizer group will invest more than 520 million euros in France over five years. This is an announcement that the CEO of Pfizer, Albert Bourla, made to Figaro this Monday: the group will invest more than 520 million euros in France over five years. With two axes: millions for the production of sound anti-Covid medicine, Paxlovid , at its Mourenx site (Pyrénées-Atlantiques), for which it is strengthening its production capacities and investing in French biotechs as well as a significant increase in its clinical trials with French patients. He also gave his predictions for the future of the pandemic: “We will soon be back to normal life.”

For epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, “the worst-case scenario is moving away”. A week after his optimistic predictions about omicron which should fall in February, the epidemiologist and member of the Scientific Council Arnaud Fontanet persists and signs this Monday morning on France Inter: “Yes, the worst-case scenario is moving away, the decline has begun, the peak of infections has passed these days at least in Ile-de-France. Hospital admissions are expected to peak in the coming week.” But he adds: “On the other hand, the patients will remain in the hospital, we can expect that the hospitals will still remain very busy throughout the month of February.”

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