[사진 = 연합뉴스]The atmosphere of selective subscription by consumers is deepening. It is interpreted as a phenomenon that occurred as difficulties in securing pre-sale prices increased due to increased interest rates in response to high-strength loan regulations. The competition rate for subscribing for apartments with a nationwide sale price of more than 900 million won is also dropping sharply.
According to Real Estate R114 data on the 1st, the competitive rate of subscription for apartments exceeding 900 million won nationwide recorded 9.4 to 1 from the beginning of this year until the 20th of last month. This is far below the average competition ratio of last year (64.7 to 1). During the same period, those with more than 600 million won and less than 900 million won fell from 31.3 to 1 to 20.9 to 1, and from 17.3 to 1 for those under 600 million won to 9.2 to 1.
Earlier, from July 2016, when the pre-sale market was overheated, the government began restricting the guarantee of mid-payment loans by the Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG) or the Korea Housing Finance Corporation (HF) for houses with a presale price of over 900 million won. Interim payment loans, which are called ‘group loans’ in the field, are operated in such a way that the project entity, such as a project developer or a construction company, receives a guarantee from HUG or HF, borrows an interim payment from a financial company, and connects it to the contractor.
Houses with a presale price of 900 million won or less can receive up to 40 to 60 percent of the mid-payment loan depending on whether the area is regulated or not. On the other hand, if the amount exceeds 900 million won, it is practically impossible to get a mid-payment loan. In the end, the adoptee must pay all the interim payment in cash. However, if the business entity arranges for a loan, the interim payment loan can be made on its own, but the loan interest rate is higher than that of a bank loan.
In addition, the remaining loans are included in the calculation of the individual total debt repayment ratio (DSR) for complexes that announce the recruitment of occupants from this year. As of January of this year, the individual DSR regulation has been applied at 40% for the first financial sector (50% for the second financial sector) to borrowers with a total loan amount exceeding 200 million won. However, from July, the target will be expanded to borrowers with a total loan of more than 100 million won. There is also high pressure for an additional rate hike by the end of the year, making it more difficult for end-users to plan their finances.
Urban Asset Management CEO Jeong Seong-jin said, “After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the real estate market is rapidly freezing as the price of pre-sale is inevitably increased due to a rise in construction costs due to a surge in the price of atomic ash.
In the meantime, more and more winners are giving up their contracts in Seoul, which has been considered ‘unbeatable’. For example, ‘Hanwha Forenamia’, which will be supplied as part of the redevelopment of Samyang Intersection Special Plan 3 in Gangbuk-gu, Seoul, will receive non-priority subscriptions for 139 households of 39 to 84 square meters on the 2nd. A total of 328 households were sold for general sale at this site, but 42% of the subscription winners gave up on the contract.
If the winner of the subscription gives up the contract, re-winning is restricted for up to 10 years from the date of winning, but it is interpreted that many of them gave up on the contract as the burden of tightened loan regulations and interest rate increases increased. There is also the industry’s view that the high pre-sale price due to the non-application of the pre-sale price cap may also have played a part.
In Gangbuk-gu this year, Mia-dong ‘Bukseoul Zypolaris’ (redevelopment of Mia 3 district) and Suyu-dong ‘Cantabil Suyu Palace’ (Gangbuk General Market reorganization), which made the first subscription in Gangbuk-gu this year, also had to give up on contracts. In addition, ‘Shinyoung Gwell Estate Gaebong Station’ in Gaebong-dong, Gwanak-gu, ‘Seoul National University Station The Hive Central’ in Bongcheon-dong, Gwanak-gu, ‘Sillim Sky Apartment’ in Sillim-dong, and ‘VT Style’ in Jangan-dong, Dongdaemun-gu From the second half of last year to this year, in Seoul too The number of complexes leading to non-priority subscriptions has increased.
Although these regions are speculative overheated districts, they have in common that they are not subject to the sale price cap and are subject to HUG’s high sale price review. The high sale price review system is a system in which HUG controls the high sale price in a way that refuses guarantees if the sale price is higher than a certain standard in government-regulated areas (excluding areas where the sale price ceiling is applied).
Previously, HUG improved its screening criteria in a way that fully reflects the surrounding market price from September 30 last year. Since then, the average sale price of privately-sold apartments nationwide has risen by 14.8% from 48.378 million won in January to September last year to 555.45 million won from October 1 of last year to the 27th of this month.
The new government will revise the price ceiling system next month. Currently, there are 13 districts in Seoul and 322 dongs in 3 cities (Hanam, Gwangmyeong, and Gwacheon) in Gyeonggi Province. However, industry insiders view that the reform of the upper limit system will not be a major revision, but will only be a fine adjustment due to the rise in the price of atomic ash.
A real estate expert predicts that “there will continue to be cases of low subscription competition or underachieving cases centering on high-sale-price businesses in Seoul that have poor location conditions or do not differ significantly from the surrounding market prices.” There is a possibility that the competition rate for a relatively low small area will increase,” he said.
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