United Nations or AND publishes updates on global population trends every two years.publish information “world population trends” Issue 27 on July 11, in the past due to “world population day” (World Population Day) byBangkok BusinessHas summarized the important things to read in its entirety as follows:
India will have a larger population than China.
Although China has long held the position of being the world’s most populous country with a population of over 1.4 billion, its population growth rate has steadily declined since the 1970s.one child policy“Initiated in 1979 in the era of government”Deng Xiaoping” to control the population from growing too much This made many families choose to have an abortion when they knew they were expecting a daughter. According to the beliefs of the Chinese people who tend to want more sons to inherit.
in addition Such policies also have a long-term impact on China. whether it is labor shortage The number of male populations is several times more than females. as well as stepping into an aging society This caused China to cancel the one-child policy on January 1, 2016.
Later in 2021, President Xi China’s Jinping has approved the policy policy “3 children” instead ready to incentivize people to have children by various measures such as giving birth bonuses maternity subsidies and child tuition assistance But it seems that this policy is too late.
From the 2021 annual birth rate data ofNational Health Commission of Chinafound inMany Chinese provinces have the lowest birth rates in decades. And some areas have the lowest birth rates in 60 years, with an average birth rate of just 7.52 per 1,000 inhabitants.
“CantoneseReputed to be the richest and most populous province in China, It was the only county out of 31 counties with more than 1 million new children last year. Hunan Province The birth rate is below 500,000 for the first time in nearly 60 years. in the eastern part of the country Has a birth rate below 400,000 for the first time since the 1950s.
Yang Wenzhuang, Head of Population Affairs and Planning China’s National Health Commission said that China’s population is expected to begin shrinking further between 2021 and 2026 due toMost of the younger generation choose not to have children. for reasons of cost of living and work pressure
while india Although the fertility rate has dropped from 5.7 per woman in the 1950s to just two per woman today,This rate of declining badge is slowly. This is different from one child policy. According to the United Nations, in 2025 the population of China and India will be equal to 1,430 million. before India overtakes China in 2026. With a population of 1,440 million, China remains at 1,430 million.
The report also found that More than half of the world’s population growth from now to 2050 willConcentrated in only 8 countries These are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, United States and Tanzania.
for Top 10 Most Populous Countries In The World In The 2050s that consists of
- India 1,670,490,601 people, an increase of 18% from 2022.
- China 1,312,636,324 people, down 8% from 2022
- Nigeria 377,459,883, a 73% increase from 2022.
- US 375,391,965, up 11% from 2022
- Pakistan 367,808,468 people, a 56% increase from 2022.
- Indonesia 317,225,212 people, 15% increase from 2022
- Brazil 230,885,728 people, up 7% from 2022
- Democratic Republic of the Congo 217,494,004, a 120% increase from 2022.
- Ethiopia 214,812,308 people, up 74% from 2022.
- Bangladesh 203,904,891, a 19% increase from 2022.
Thailand The population is expected to be 67,880,087 within that decade. down 5% from 2022
The world population will exceed 8 billion by the end of the year.
since 1975 onwards The population will increase by 1 billion every 12 years. This year, the statistics remain the same, with the world reaching 7,000 by the end of 2011 and by the end of this year (2022), the world population of 8 billion, although the absolute growth rate is similar to the previous decade. page butThe global population growth rate continues to decline. Since 2019, the population growth rate has dropped to less than 1%, with 0.82% in 2021, less than half that of the 1960s, when population growth was above 2.3%.
COVID-19 has killed more than 15 million people
The spread of the COVID-19 virus Significant impact on global population and migration trends Despite revealing the number of deaths from COVID-19 that has been confirmed by the government of each country But there is a tendency for the number of deaths to be underestimated. Because testing for COVID-19 is much less than it should be.
So one way the UN has used to check the number of deaths from COVID-19 is to check the total number of deaths in the year that the COVID-19 outbreak and the previous year that has not happened is that. The year 2019 saw an estimated 57,940,000 deaths worldwide.
In 2020, there were 63,170,000 deaths, an increase of about 5.23 billion, and in 2021, there were 69,250,000 deaths, an increase of 11,310,000. At least about 15 million people have died. That’s close to other estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO), which estimates 14.9 million deaths from COVID-19 worldwide, while The Economist newspaper estimates the death toll. at 17.6 million
however These numbers are highly uncertain. But there is a high probability that the death toll from COVID-19 That’s more than the actual reporting of just 5,400,000 cases worldwide.
The world population peaked at 10.4 billion in 2629.
before “world population trends” The 26th edition predicts that by 2100 the world population will be about 10,880 million people, and this will increase further. But in its latest report, the United Nations said The world’s population will peak in 2086, with only 10,400 million people. The reason that the peak population figure was lower and came earlier than the original forecast was due to the UN expectsfertility rate (fertility rates) in low-income countries is rapidly declining. While fertility rates in high-income countries will only increase slightly in the second half of the century.
The global fertility rate continues to decline.
fertility rate isThe number indicates how many children a woman will give birth in her lifetime. This will affect the factors that determine the world population rate. Fertility rates have been declining steadily for decades. In the 1950s, on average, a woman gave birth to five children over the course of her life. But the global fertility rate in the second half of 2021 has dropped to just 2.3.
However, if looking at the fertility rate by country, it is found that Most countries will have fertility rates at or below the replacement level. (Replacement level), especially in many high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, Spain or Italy, has a low birth rate of 1.3 per woman. Also, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries with a fertility rate lower than 2.1 people per woman.
Source: culture, Global Times, Mathichon, Our World in Data, World Economic Forum, World Population Prospects 2022, World Population Review