Major Hurricane Lowell has strengthened into a powerful Category 3 storm featuring maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, according to advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. Located approximately 580 miles south-southwest of Līhuʻe, the storm has begun a northward turn, moving at 6 mph toward the northwest.
Hurricane Lowell Gains Category 3 Status While Approaching Hawaiʻi
Forecasters anticipate minor intensity fluctuations in the short term before a gradual weakening trend starts Sunday and Monday. As the storm moves north-northeast and accelerates, it is expected to encounter a more hostile environment characterized by increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air, leading to a faster rate of weakening by Monday night and Tuesday. Nonetheless, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it makes its closest approach to the main Hawaiian Islands on Monday night, passing 100 to 200 miles west of Niʻihau.
Watches, Warnings, and Severe Weather Threats
Local officials have instituted several emergency designations across the region. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Kauaʻi East, Kauaʻi Mountains, Kauaʻi North, Kauaʻi South, Kauaʻi Southwest, and Niʻihau. Additionally, a hurricane watch remains active for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Nīhoa to French Frigate Shoals, and a flood watch covers the entire state.
Kauaʻi County faces a strong possibility of high winds, heavy rain, storm surge, and tornadoes. Sustained tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or higher are anticipated by Monday afternoon, with preparations advised to be completed before midday Monday. Terrain-accelerated winds could produce gusts of 60 mph or more over Kauaʻi and Niʻihau. Furthermore, conditions late Monday will become favorable for fast-moving, short-lived waterspouts and tornadoes within Lowell’s rainbands near Kauaʻi and Niʻihau, though this specific threat is expected to diminish quickly by Tuesday morning.
Rainfall Totals and Coastal Hazards
Deep tropical moisture surrounding the hurricane is spreading northward, bringing significant rainfall and flood risks. Peak rainfall amounts for Kauaʻi County are projected between 6 and 10 inches, with maximum totals potentially exceeding 14 inches in certain locations. The Big Island is forecast to receive 2 to 6 inches with isolated totals up to 10 inches, Maui is expected to see 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximums of 8 inches, and the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands should experience 2 to 4 inches of rain. These amounts could trigger flash flooding and mudslides, particularly on Kauaʻi and parts of the Big Island.
Coastal areas are also facing severe hazards. A high surf advisory has been extended, with swells from Lowell and Tropical Storm Karina producing surf heights up to 14 feet along eastern shorelines and 12 feet along south-facing shores, increasing further by Sunday night. Forecasters indicate that highest surf heights along exposed south and west-facing shores on Kauaʻi and Niʻihau could reach 20 to 30 feet on Monday and Monday night, accompanied by 1 to 3 feet of coastal inundation before diminishing on Tuesday.
