After months of dithering, the battle for pensions is thrown. The reform will be presented on January 23 in the Council of Ministers then examined in the National Assembly at the beginning of February. Measures, including raising the retirement age, will be announced publicly on Tuesday, after final consultations with the social partners and the parliamentary groups. Without an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the executive expects a tough battle in the hemicycle, but has a good chance of getting its reform voted through.
Option 1: rally to the right
For several weeks, the government has insisted on its desire for “consultation”. But so far, all the unions and a good part of the opposition are contesting the executive’s plan to gradually postpone the retirement age from 62 to 65, or to 64 with an extension of the contribution period. . “It’s always important to discuss, and the exchanges will continue. But it looks very complicated…”, admits Erwan Balanant, MP MoDem of Finistere.
Once again, the natural ally of the majority could be Les Républicains. Elisabeth Borne hopes to rally the right, the majority in favor of reform. But Eric Ciotti, new president of LR, had warned at the start of the discussions that his group would not accept a reform “at any price”, refusing, for example, a “brutal” increase in the starting age to retirement at age 65.
“It’s complicated with LR, because they are not all on the same line. But the presidential project carried by Valerie Pécresse [qui prônait un allongement de l’âge légal à 65 ans] that the right was defending six months ago is a good starting point for discussion, ”whistles Sylvain Maillard, deputy for Paris and vice-president of the Renaissance group. To clear the ground, the Prime Minister spoke with the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes Eric Ciotti, as well as with the heads of groups in the Senate Bruno Retailleau, and in the Assembly Olivier Marleix. “The reform will only pass with the support of LR or it will not pass. I hope that Elisabeth Borne has heard our messages, in particular on the improvement of small pensions and the absence of brutality in (its) implementation”, he summarized after an interview with nearly an hour with the head of government on Friday, in which he also pleaded for “an additional quarter of contribution per year”.
Option 2: 49.3 in an amending budget
If no common ground is found, Elisabeth Borne would be forced to use 49.3 again. The executive is also planning to pass the pension reform through an amending financing law for the Social Security. Why ? If the government only has one 49.3 per parliamentary session (until next summer) for ordinary laws, it can use it at will for budgetary texts. This solution would therefore allow the Prime Minister to keep her precious cartridge for the perilous texts of the coming months, on immigration or nuclear power. This would also make it possible to shorten the debates, while the rebellious are already considering the filing of thousands of amendments.
“We need a possibility to get out of the blockage, and this track of an amending budget is not at all taboo”, admits Sylvain Maillard. “The important thing is not to know when we will use 49.3, but how we are going to meet the expectations of the French,” adds Renaissance MP Anne Genetet. But according to several polls, a majority of French people are not in favor of this reform. An opposition that could well to be heard in the street even before the text reaches the National Assembly.