Lu Yuren – Cashing out the haze, the valuation of Kewang is easy to fall and difficult to rise|Financial High Tea

The Hong Kong stock market is really weak recently, and there is little response to good news, and the foot is soft when the wind blows. Under the impact of the news that Tencent (700) may reduce its holdings in Meituan (3690), the Hang Seng Index finally fell below the 20,000-point mark.

The news of Tencent’s sale of Meituan was exposed by foreign sources. Under the shadow of the release of a large number of shares, Meituan’s share price reacted immediately. Meituan plunged 9% to close at 164.5 yuan, the worst performing blue-chip stock; Tencent bucked the market and rose 0.9% to close at the report 303 yuan; Kuaishou (1024) plunged 4% to close at 71.9 yuan; Weimeng Group (2013) plunged 15.5% to close at 3.6 yuan. According to foreign sources, Tencent’s move is to appease regulators. Tencent did not respond to the news at first. Later, the mainland industry media quoted the news that there was no plan. It is not ruled out that the news triggered the stock market to fall, so it came out to send reassurance.
Tencent’s reduction in Meituan’s holdings fears death

Mainland regulators expressed concern about the monopoly threat of the giant technology network company, and Tencent responded by distributing its JD.com shares. It is unclear whether the regulators are satisfied. At present, Tencent still holds 17% of Meituan, which is not a low share. Meituan is regarded as one of the apps with the highest penetration rate in the mainland. It is not ruled out that the two need to be cut. Foreign power’s argument is groundless, not necessarily without reason. Now that the news is exposed, and there is indirect news to deny it, it may be that the repercussions are relatively large, so it is not ruled out that the action will meet the light of death.

A plan involving more than 100 billion yuan cannot be done at will, but the news of the reduction has already come out. There are several possible effects. One of them is that the regulators feel that the impact is too great and will not force the two to separate. It is not ruled out that it will have the opposite effect. For the stock price of Meituan, the shadow of the reduction is not easy to dissipate. Some people will wonder, since Tencent can break away from JD.com by allocating shares, whether it can take the same approach. However, from Tencent’s point of view, if it distributes a large amount of assets and does not recover the funds, the advantages will be reduced in the future if it has to do large-scale projects, so the situation is a bit embarrassing.

Tencent may sell Meituan or have capital needs, which is also a common phenomenon among major shareholders of technology stocks recently. Previously, Tencent South Africa’s major shareholders overturned their promise not to reduce their holdings, indicating that they would reduce their shares in an orderly manner according to market prices, and then hold a large number of Alibaba ( 9988) Japan’s SoftBank is also preparing to sell Ali’s shares in order to raise funds for a buyback. The growth of Internet stocks has slowed down in the past two years, and the business model has entered a mature stage. Major shareholders are preparing to cash out and re-invest. Under the climate of large investors reducing their holdings, the second-hand supply of this category of shares is quite sufficient, and the valuation is believed to be easy to fall and difficult to rise.
ChinaBond’s rumored support for the stock price of Chinese real estate

Before the news of the reduction of Meituan’s holdings, the market was originally hyping that there is raw water in the inner room. According to market rumors, mainland regulators plan to provide liquidity support to these housing companies by appointing state-owned enterprises to guarantee and underwrite new RMB bonds issued by demonstration housing companies; The bills carry out “full, unconditional and irrevocable joint and several liability guarantee”, involving model private real estate enterprises such as CIFI Holdings Group (884), Country Garden (2007), Longfor Group (960), Sino-Ocean Group (3377), and mainland-listed Xincheng Holdings. Shares in the sector rose sharply. Country Garden Services (6098) surged 15% to close at 15.92 yuan, the best performing blue-chip stock; Longfor Group soared 12% to close at 24.9 yuan; Country Garden soared 9% to close at 2.53 yuan; CIFI Group soared 13% to close at 2.1 yuan ; CIFI (1995) surged 14% to close at 4.89 yuan; Rundi (1109) rose 3% to close at 30.7 yuan; China Overseas (688) rose 3.6% to close at 20.2 yuan.

Mainland property stocks have fallen miserably recently, and their prices are still quite low. Due to the sharp decline in the value of the mainland property market, even if the recovery of the leading stocks has a limited impact on the index, it cannot withstand the falling force of the Internet stocks. point; the Kezhi Index closed at 4221 points, down 87 points, with a turnover of 98.6 billion yuan.

In addition to the domestic housing stocks, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it will give play to the role of the inter-ministerial coordination mechanism for coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation, and focus on the performance of medium and long-term contracts for electricity and coal to ensure the security of energy and power supply. At the same time, Morgan Stanley issued a report saying that the heat wave has pushed up the demand for electricity in the mainland, and it is expected that coal-fired power companies may turn around and record a slight profit in July, and power stocks bucked the market. Huadian International (1071) rose 7% to close at 3.19 yuan; Rundian (836) rose 5.6% to close at 14.4 yuan; China Power (2380) rose 4.5% to close at 4.16 yuan; Huaneng International (902) jumped 4.6%, To close at 3.88 yuan; Longyuan (916) rose 3.5% to close at 12.5 yuan.
Jin Riku

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