US stocks rebounded last night, but Hong Kong stocks did not benefit. The Hang Seng Index continued to drop to low levels. Those who want to buy good stocks are now buying more and more flat. This is the most painful point of the bear market.
The outside has been up, and one of the interpretations of the sluggish Hong Kong stock is limited by the exchange rate. The U.S. Federal Reserve has frightened the market with its eagle attitude. Funds have returned from all directions, and the mainland monetary policy has changed from eagle to dove. The RMB exchange rate is under pressure. What about breaking 7? It is estimated that the minifigure will not break through and fall sharply.
There are many price support tools with small drops but no big drops
The strong US dollar exchange rate has put pressure on the currencies of many emerging countries. Due to the impact of interest rate differences, the minifigures have been weak in the past week. Although the People’s Bank of China reduced the foreign currency deposit reserve ratio and released US dollars to support the exchange rate of the minifigures, the US dollar interest rate peaked. In the past, the pressure has not disappeared, the PBOC’s approach can reduce the decline, but it can not stop the decline. In addition to buying stocks, many Hong Kong people also own dolls. Although dolls entered a stage of ups and downs a few years ago, and the trend of saving dolls has faded, the public still has a lot of doll assets, so they will be concerned about the exchange rate of dolls. .
Mainland experts believe that 7.0 is an important integer threshold for minifigures. After the 811 exchange rate reform in 2015, minifigures fell below 7.0 several times, but in the end, it did not cause a sharp depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. On the other hand, the PBOC’s toolbox to prevent a sharp depreciation of its currency still has tools to deal with. Among them, in 2017, the People’s Bank of China pioneered the counter-cyclical factor, a new policy tool. When there is great depreciation pressure in the foreign exchange market, the counter-cyclical factor is an important tool for the PBOC to hedge against pro-cyclical fluctuations in market sentiment (the so-called irrational herd effect). During the two sharp depreciations of the RMB exchange rate in 2022, it is estimated that the People’s Bank of China has activated the counter-cyclical factor.
According to the statement of the People’s Bank of China on the calculation of the countercyclical factor in the monetary policy implementation report: “When calculating the countercyclical factor, the impact of changes in the basket of currencies can be removed from the volatility of the previous day’s closing price compared with the central parity, and the main The exchange rate changes that reflect market supply and demand are then adjusted by the counter-cyclical coefficient to obtain the counter-cyclical factor.” The central bank uses complex counter-cyclical factors to adjust the exchange rate. It just wants to show that she is intervening in the exchange rate of the minifigures, not just doing random things. stability to stabilize international confidence. So far, compared with the euro, the yen, the pound and other currencies, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar has remained roughly stable.
There are two sides to everything. Mainland experts pointed out that although the adjustment of the counter-cyclical factor can stabilize the short-term fluctuation of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, it will also increase the uncertainty of the formation mechanism of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, and even affect the foreign exchange forward market to a certain extent. development of. Once the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is facing the pressure of continuous and rapid depreciation in the short term, it is believed that the PBOC should tolerate the moderate depreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar and enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. On the other hand, it should comprehensively use foreign exchange macro-prudential management tools and capital flow management , forward-looking guidance and other means to maintain the stability of the local currency exchange rate. For ordinary people, the most direct point is that even if the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar breaks 7.0 in the short term, there is no need to worry that the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar will depreciate significantly. During the rest of 2022, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar may fluctuate within a range of 6.7 to 7.2, and the CIF price of the minifigure against the US dollar closed at 6.9639 yesterday.
Chinese power stocks show resilience against the market
If compared with foreign exchange such as the Japanese yen or the British pound, the decline of the minifigures is indeed not serious, but from the perspective of the stock market, there is pressure for continuous adjustment. The cumulative decline has reached 1,000 points; the state-owned enterprise index closed at 6,436 points, down 76 points, with a turnover of 80 billion yuan. The decline of the market is so great, and the trading volume has shrunk so much, it is difficult to see what level of water will rebound. One of the focus stocks is Tencent (700), whose major shareholder has a share transfer position. The action aroused the doubt of heavy hand reduction. The share price plummeted by more than 3% to close at 301.8 yuan; BYD (1211), which was also reduced by the major shareholder, fell by 3 %, closed at 216.2 yuan, and electric vehicle stocks also fell across the board.
Mainland property stocks retreated across the board, and the rate was not small. CIFI Holdings (884) plunged 14% to close at 1.78 yuan; Country Garden (2007) fell 7% to close at 2.2 yuan.
Oil prices fell again. CNOOC (883) fell 3.6% to close at 9.57 yuan. The new energy sector performed well. GCL New Energy (451) bucked the trend and rose 8% to close at 0.085 yuan; Datang New Energy (1798) surged 11% to close at 2.32 yuan. Chinese power stocks were also favored against the market. Huaneng (902) soared 6% to close at 4.7 yuan; China Electric Power (2380) also rose 3.4% to close at 4.57 yuan. Those who were brave enough to make money during the earlier adjustment may already be able to harvest.
Jin Riku