France’s Political Earthquake: How Macron’s Plunging Approval Signals a Rightward Shift
Just 17% of French citizens now view Emmanuel Macron favorably – his lowest approval rating since taking office in 2017, and a staggering 18-point drop within his own electorate. This isn’t simply a blip; it’s a seismic shift in French political sentiment, revealed in the latest Ipsos/BVA barometer for La Tribune, and one that suggests a growing openness to right-wing alternatives. The implications extend far beyond Macron’s presidency, potentially reshaping France’s political landscape for years to come.
The Disillusionment with the Current Government
The data paints a stark picture. New Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is struggling to gain traction, with only 16% favorable opinion – significantly lower than predecessors like Gabriel Attal (37%), Michel Barnier (34%), and even Élisabeth Borne (27%). This immediate lack of public confidence, coupled with widespread skepticism (60% believe he won’t secure a compromise on the 2026 budget), underscores a deep-seated frustration with the current government’s ability to deliver. The appointment of Lecornu, intended to signal a fresh start, appears to have backfired, amplifying rather than diminishing the sense of political stagnation.
French political approval ratings are becoming a critical indicator of the nation’s mood, and the current trend is undeniably negative. This isn’t isolated to the executive branch; the broader political establishment is facing a crisis of trust.
The Rise of the Right: Bardella and Le Pen Lead the Pack
Perhaps the most striking finding from the Ipsos/BVA barometer is the surging popularity of far-right figures. Jordan Bardella, president of the Rassemblement National (RN), now leads the pack of potential presidential candidates with 35% approval, followed closely by Marine Le Pen (32%). Bruno Retailleau, the Minister of the Interior, also performs strongly at 27%, surpassing established figures like former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (25%). Raphaël Glucksmann, the leading leftist candidate, lags behind at 18%.
Did you know? The RN’s consistent gains in popularity reflect a broader trend across Europe, where right-wing populist parties are capitalizing on anxieties surrounding immigration, economic insecurity, and cultural identity.
This isn’t merely about personality; it’s about a perceived alignment with the concerns of a significant portion of the French electorate. The RN’s focus on issues like national sovereignty, border control, and cost of living resonates with voters who feel left behind by globalization and traditional political parties.
Future Trends and Implications
The current political climate suggests several key trends are likely to unfold in the coming months and years:
- Continued Erosion of Macron’s Authority: Unless Macron can demonstrably improve his approval ratings, his ability to enact meaningful reforms will be severely hampered. Expect increased reliance on executive orders and a more confrontational relationship with the opposition.
- Further Polarization of French Politics: The widening gap between the left and right will likely intensify, making consensus-building even more difficult. This could lead to political gridlock and increased social unrest.
- The RN as a Mainstream Contender: Bardella and Le Pen are no longer fringe candidates. They are now serious contenders for the presidency, and their policies will likely influence the broader political debate.
- Shifting Focus to Economic Concerns: With inflation and cost of living remaining major concerns, expect political parties to prioritize economic issues in their platforms. The ability to offer credible solutions to these challenges will be crucial for gaining voter support.
Expert Insight: “The French electorate is signaling a desire for change, and the traditional political establishment is struggling to respond. The RN’s success is not simply a protest vote; it reflects a genuine shift in values and priorities.” – Dr. Isabelle Dubois, Professor of Political Science, Sorbonne University.
The 2026 Budget: A Critical Test
The upcoming 2026 budget negotiations will be a critical test for Lecornu and Macron. With 60% of French people doubting his ability to reach a compromise with opposition parties, the stakes are incredibly high. Failure to secure a budget agreement could trigger a political crisis and further erode public confidence in the government. This situation highlights the growing power of opposition parties and the challenges of governing in a deeply divided France.
Pro Tip: Businesses operating in France should closely monitor the political situation and prepare for potential policy changes. Diversification and risk management will be crucial in navigating this uncertain environment.
Navigating the New Political Landscape
The current political climate in France presents both challenges and opportunities. For businesses, understanding the shifting dynamics is crucial for making informed decisions. For investors, assessing the risks and potential rewards of the French market requires a nuanced understanding of the political landscape. And for citizens, engaging in constructive dialogue and holding their elected officials accountable is essential for shaping the future of the country.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What are the main drivers of Macron’s declining popularity?
A: Several factors contribute, including economic anxieties, perceived disconnect from ordinary citizens, and dissatisfaction with recent policy decisions, particularly pension reforms.
Q: Is the rise of the RN a temporary phenomenon?
A: While it’s impossible to predict the future with certainty, the RN’s consistent gains in popularity suggest a more enduring shift in French political sentiment.
Q: What impact will this have on France’s role in the European Union?
A: A stronger RN presence could lead to a more Eurosceptic stance and potentially challenge France’s commitment to deeper European integration.
Q: What should businesses do to prepare for potential political changes?
A: Businesses should diversify their operations, manage risks carefully, and stay informed about policy developments. Building strong relationships with stakeholders across the political spectrum is also crucial.
What are your predictions for the future of French politics? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Explore more insights on the French economic outlook in our comprehensive guide.
Read the full Ipsos/BVA barometer report for detailed data and analysis.
