In the democratic history of Nigeria, never has a president been elected with such a low proportion of the votes. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, new head of state contested by the opposition, will however have to solve unprecedented challenges.
Known for their resilience, the 216 million inhabitants of Africa’s most populous country live in the grip of widespread insecurity and a serious economic crisis, and all the lights are red. Against the backdrop of gigantic shortages of banknotes and gasoline, Bola Tinubu won the presidential election at the end of February after a poll marred by numerous technical failures and by accusations of “massive fraud”.
Upon his victory, Mr. Tinubu called on the opposition to ” work together » pour « stick the pieces back from Nigeria. But his two main opponents, unsuccessful presidential candidates, contest the results and legal proceedings are underway. ” Tinubu will first have to work hard to build its legitimacy, given how the elections were held with an Electoral Commission (Inec) either incompetent or complicit“, says Nnamdi Obasi, expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG).
– ” Angry ” –
At 70, the candidate of the ruling party (APC) won the election by accumulating only 8.8 million votes, or 36% of the vote, a historically low score. Blame it on Peter Obi, a surprise candidate supported by urban and connected youth. The fault is also due to record abstention (73%), due both to insecurity and to the disenchantment of a majority of the population after eight years in power of Muhammadu Buhari – who is stepping down in May 2023 – and his two mandates marked by the explosion of poverty and violence.
To gain legitimacy, Mr. Tinubu – extremely wealthy and accused of corruption without ever having been convicted – will have to send “strong signals very quickly” and above all not to follow the example of his predecessor who had waited six months to form a government, insists Mr. Obasi.
But his age and his health worry. In a country where 60% of the population is under 25, Mr. Tinubu has suffered bouts of tremors in public, which “ exacerbates its problem of legitimacy“, says Tunde Ajileye of Nigerian consultancy SBM Intelligence. The new President will therefore have to very probably “to face popular anger, he who announced a series of decisions” required » but to « very negative economic consequences in the short term« , assure M. Ajileye.
Under President Buhari, the economy has only deteriorated, especially since Covid and the war in Ukraine. Unemployment exceeds 33%, inflation is close to 22%, public debt is growing and poverty is colossal, with 133 million people living below the poverty line.
In agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, Mr. Tinubu, for example, assured that he would immediately abolish fuel subsidies. But that would be to alienate a population already on its knees, he who already does not enjoy great popularity.
Because such a decision would doubling the price of a liter of gasoline and would cause large-scale inflation“, warns Mr. Obasi. ” People will be really angry« .
– « Impasse » –
But their removal will allow Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, to ” managing the budget crisis » and to invest in « Education, infrastructure and social protection programs“, emphasizes Mucahid Durmaz, analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
Ending the large-scale oil theft that is costing Nigeria $2 billion a year is also a priority, experts say.
The new President will also have to tackle the corollary of this flagging economy: insecurity. Violence remains widespread, between jihadist, separatist and criminal groups. For their part, the armed forces and the police are understaffed, ill-equipped and regularly accused of serious human rights violations.
They “require far-reaching structural reforms and comprehensive training programs,” insists Mr. Durmaz. Meanwhile, Nigeria is piling up its dead every week. In the northeast, stronghold of jihadist groups, the army is unable to put an end to 13 years of a conflict that has left 40,000 dead and 2 million displaced.
« Nothing indicates that the strategy changes with the arrival of a new President like Tinubu“, says Jacob Zenn, researcher at the Jamestown Foundation. ” This stalemate may simply continue« .