The Isle of Man general election in September 2026 has delivered a shift in the House of Keys. Incumbent Chief Minister Alfred Cannan faces a knife-edge battle to retain his seat, while multiple government ministers are projected to lose theirs as voters focus on issues like housing, healthcare, and cost-of-living pressures.
Here is why that matters for the island’s political landscape: the exit polls, conducted by Manx Radio during voting on Thursday, predict that seven outgoing MHKs will lose their seats. Among them are three high-profile current members of the Council of Ministers, signaling public dissatisfaction with the legislative status quo.
Ministries on the Line as Exit Polls Predict Clear-Out
The projected losses reach deep into the core of the Manx government. Outgoing Environment, Food and Agriculture Minister Clare Barber, Education, Sport and Culture Minister Daphne Caine, and Enterprise Minister Tim Johnston are all tipped to lose their places in the House of Keys. Michelle Haywood, a former minister and Rushen MHK, alongside the deputy speaker of the Keys, face the same electoral fate.
Meanwhile, the political survival of the island’s leader remains undecided. In Ayre and Michael, exit polls place Chief Minister Alfred Cannan in a fiercely contested fight to retain his mandate, separated by a razor-thin margin of just 1% from the candidate sitting in third place.
Overall, the polls suggest a significant influx of fresh faces, with 15 new MHKs projected to enter parliament. This wave includes eight women, representing a shift from the 10 women elected in the 2021 general election. Because a third of the seats in the Keys are uncontested by outgoing members, eight new figures are already guaranteed a place in Tynwald.
The Domestic Pressures Driving the Ballot Box Shift
Voters did not pull the lever on a whim. The 2026 campaign was dominated by economic and social anxieties: keeping young people on the island, soaring housing costs and limited availability, the expansion of wind farms, lengthening healthcare waiting times, and the spiralling expenses hammering small businesses.
| Constituency | Confirmed / Leading Candidate | Contested Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arbory, Castletown and Malew | Kirrie Jenkins | Too close to call (Jason Moorhouse / Steve Crowther) |
| Ayre and Michael | Stephen Broad | Too close to call (Alfred Cannan / Phil Corkhill) |
| Douglas East | Andy Saunders | Too close to call (Joney Faragher / Dave Mackey) |
| Garff | Richard Henthorne, Aishlinn Creer | – |
| Glenfaba and Peel | Katryna Baptist, Geoffrey Pugh | – |
What Happens Next in Tynwald
Those elected as Members of the House of Keys will be sworn in on Tuesday by the first and second deemsters.
From there, the newly constituted House of Keys will sit on October 13 to formally nominate a chief minister and a speaker of the House of Keys.
