2023-08-14 12:56:00
After the opening of the trading session this Monday after PASO, Argentine bonds listed on Wall Street show sharp falls of more than 10 percent, percentages even higher than those of June 2022 that were seen after the departure of former Economy Minister Martín Guzmán.
Government titles suffer drops that reach up to 12 points in the premarket, indicates NA. The GD30, one of the bonds traded on the Stock Exchange for the formation of the MEP and Cash with Settlement, shows a retraction of 11.3%.
For its part, GD29 decreased by 11.7%, while GD35 decreased by 12.4%, GD 38 by 11.6%, GD41 by 12% and GD46 by 12.45%. For analysts, this outburst could force the economic authorities to reinforce intervention to avoid an escalation of financial dollars that, at the same time, puts pressure on the informal price.
Expectations for the dollar
The post-PASO Monday places Javier Milei as the great winner of the primary elections, although it was undoubtedly not the expected result. This poses a surprising scenario that heralds a hot opening, mainly for the blue exchange market and financial markets, for this Monday.
For example, the crypto dollar is the thermometer that shows how the day can come. It is an exchange rate that operates 24 x 7, and yesterday it was bullish after the electoral result that left Milei as the most voted candidate. At the end of the day, it was operating in the range of 670-690 pesos, however, on certain platforms where it is traded, such as Binance, where prices can be negotiated between private parties (P2P), some sellers were asking for more than $800.
For some analysts consulted by PROFILE, what is coming is positive to the extent that the results of the PASO show the will to break with the current situation. “More than half the population is asking for a change,” said Aldo Abram, executive director of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation.
Along the same lines, Abram considered: “The fear that many had is dissolving. There is support for the change to be made. It should be very good news for the markets. We have the possibility that, as of December 10, it will join La Libertad Avanza and Together for Change so that this country changes direction and the structural reforms that the country needs are made,” he explained.
Also rescuing the idea of change, the economist Miguel Kiguel, director of the Econviews consulting firm, expressed himself when he explained that “This result took the market by surprise. Although Together for Change plus Milei are more than 50%, it is a shift to the right, towards the market in economic policies the issue is that for the market Milei is an unknown quantity as President”, he told NA.
Regarding the dollar, he announced that “it will rise, but the most important thing is to see what will happen to the assets and how the bonds react, which, I estimate, will go down,” he predicted.
For Agustín Etchebarne, Director General of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, it is very difficult to estimate what will happen in the next few hours with the dollar.
“Let’s remember that Argentina has a repressed hyperinflation, with exchange rate stocks, with delayed tariffs, with frozen prices and with a remunerated debt from the Central Bank that grows exponentially and it is still not clear if this situation is going to be resolved. That is why it is likely that the The dollar market also has great volatility”, he estimated, although he pointed out that it is very difficult to predict what prices it can reach this week.
The importance of what Milei says in the next few hours
For Agustín Etchebarne, General Director of the Libertad y Progreso Foundation, it is likely that there will be a profit-taking in the bond market that had been rising very strongly.
“Last week we talked about the market phrase “buy with the rumor and sell with the news”. But in this case we must add that the markets have to recalibrate what can happen if Javier Milei is the next president. For That is going to be important every word that Javier says regarding the economy,” he explained to PROFILE.
For his part, financial adviser Christian Buteler told NA that, although the market was one of the most surprised, from now on “all of Milei’s ideas take on more relevance” and added: “Dollarization has to be analyzed more serious. The market did not expect a Milei first or a Patricia Bullrich beating (Horacio Rodríguez) Larreta widely.”
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