2024-04-07 18:00:00
[중동전 6개월… 더 커지는 불길]
Iran declares retaliation for consulate bombing… “If you don’t want the U.S. to be attacked, back off.” Intervention suggests that U.S. military facilities will also be hit. Israel places all military forces on high alert
《6 months of war in the Middle East… Iran’s attack is imminent
As the war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas marks its sixth month on the 7th (local time), concerns are growing that a direct attack on Israel by Iran, which claims to be a sponsor of Hamas, is imminent and the war will escalate. Iran’s military chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, said on the 6th that “we will inflict maximum damage” on Israel, which bombed its consulate in Syria. The timing of the attack is said to be around the 10th day of the ‘Night of Power’ of Ramadan, the Islamic fasting month. The United States went on high alert based on the judgment that a major attack could occur as early as this week, and Israel temporarily closed 28 embassies around the world. 》
As the Middle East war, which broke out with a surprise attack on Israel by the Palestinian armed group Hamas on October 7 last year, has marked half a year, there has been speculation that Iran, which claims to be a sponsor of Hamas, will launch a direct attack on Israel as early as this week. Iran refrained from direct conflict with Israel after the outbreak of war, but it was reported that it decided to attack in retaliation after Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on the 1st, killing 13 people, including Revolutionary Guard officials.
The timing of the attack is said to be the ‘Night of Power’ during the Islamic fasting holiday ‘Ramadan’. The Night of Power is one of the odd days of the last ten days of Ramadan, around the 10th day. The U.S. Joe Biden administration placed itself on high alert, believing that an Iranian attack was imminent. Israel also placed the entire military on emergency alert. If Iran’s attack becomes a reality, the Middle East war could escalate into a proxy war between Iran and the United States just six months after the outbreak, which is expected to have a major impact on the international community.
● Iranian Chief of Staff: “The greatest damage to Israel”
Pro-Iranian Houthi rebels shouting “Attack Israel” On the 5th, in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, members of the Houthis, a Shia rebel group that supports the Palestinian armed group Hamas, are shouting slogans against Israel. There is a possibility that the Houthi rebels, who are sponsored by Iran, will attack Israel by assisting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which declared an attack on Israel on the 6th. Sana = AP Newsis
According to the AFP news agency, Iranian Army Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri attended the funeral of Revolutionary Guards official Mohammad Reza Zahedi held in central Isfahan on the 6th and said, “We will respond most harshly to Israel and cause maximum damage.” He went on to say, “We will decide the timing and form (of retaliation), and it will be in a way that makes the enemy regret what they did.” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also recently said of Israel, “You will be beaten.”
A U.S. official told CNN, “We believe there will be a large-scale attack by Iran on U.S. military facilities in the Middle East or Israel as early as this week and we are preparing for it.” According to the New York Times (NYT) and CBS Broadcasting, Iran is planning retaliation using Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles (Drones) and cruise missiles. However, it was not known whether the attack would begin on Iranian soil or be carried out in pro-Iranian countries such as Iraq and Syria, he added.
An all-out offensive is also expected by Hezbollah, a Shia armed political faction in Lebanon that is sponsored by Iran, the Houthis, a Shia rebel group in Yemen, the Syrian government forces, which are also Shiites, and pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said on the 5th, “We are fully prepared.”
Iran’s actions are interpreted to be due to the fear that it could lose its status as a Shia leader if it ignores Israel’s airstrikes on consulates, which are considered its own territory, amid considerable public dissatisfaction due to chronic economic difficulties and the suppression of hijab questionable death protests. .
● After only 6 months of war, Iran-US war escalates
If Iran’s attack becomes a reality, a conflict between the United States and Iran appears inevitable. On this day, General Bagheri claimed that the United States was also involved in the airstrike on the 1st and said, “The United States will also take responsibility for this.” On the 5th, Mohammad Jamsidi, Deputy Chief of Staff for Political Affairs in the Presidential Office, said through social media This is interpreted to mean that if the United States sides with Israel, it will not rule out direct attacks on U.S. military-related facilities and expanded warfare.
Israel is preparing for war by suspending vacations for combat troops and mobilizing additional reserve forces to operate air defense systems. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu predicted a strong response, saying, “We will (first) harm those who seek to harm us.”
However, there is a view that neither U.S. President Joe Biden, ahead of the November presidential election, nor Iran, concerned about public sentiment, will want a large-scale escalation of war. Ali Sadrzadeh, an expert on Middle East affairs, told the BBC, “Iran currently does not have the capacity to wage an all-out war,” and added, “It will seek ‘symbolic revenge’ to calm domestic public opinion boiling over the humiliation suffered by Israel and restore its lost reputation among regional allies.” “It can be done,” he predicted. As an example, the possibility of a ballistic missile attack on a US air force base in Iraq was mentioned.
According to the Gaza Strip’s Ministry of Health, more than 33,000 Palestinian civilians were killed in the six-month war. The Israeli military announced that as of the 1st, a total of 600 soldiers had died in battles with Hamas. On the 6th, the BBC downplayed the achievements of the Israeli military, which claimed to have killed thousands of Hamas members and destroyed most of its vast tunnel network during the half-year of the war, saying it was difficult to prove most of them.
Cairo = Correspondent Kim Ki-yoon [email protected]
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