Tehran – The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, following the death of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, has raised questions about the potential for renewed unrest within the country. While immediate widespread revolt is not anticipated, analysts suggest the move could reignite simmering discontent, particularly given the new leader’s hardline stance and close ties to the security establishment.
The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, was framed by Iranian officials as a means of ensuring stability and continuity during a period of heightened conflict. However, experts like Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), believe the decision was driven by more specific circumstances. “The main goal with Mojtaba’s appointment was to convey continuity,” Citrinowicz said. “Under normal circumstances, and especially if Ayatollah Khamenei Sr. Had passed away from natural causes, we would not have seen Mojtaba appointed.”
A More Extreme Leader?
Citrinowicz characterizes the new Supreme Leader as an even more ideological and conservative figure than his predecessor. “He is, to a large extent, an upgraded version of his father – younger, an ideologue and conservative, with exceptionally deep ties to the Revolutionary Guards,” he explained. This close relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is expected to translate into an increased influence of the security establishment on Iran’s policies. The appointment does not bode well for Iranian citizens, as Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly involved in suppressing protests in 2009, suggesting a continuation of repressive tactics.
A woman holds a placard with an image of Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei alongside late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the day of a gathering to support Mojtaba Khamenei, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
Internal Opposition and External Support
While the appointment was welcomed by hardline factions within the Iranian security establishment – who reportedly sought his appointment even before his father’s death – it wasn’t without internal opposition. Citrinowicz noted that figures like Ali Larijani had hoped for his brother to be selected, but the current geopolitical climate and the desire for a firm grip on power ultimately favored Mojtaba Khamenei. He served alongside commanders of the Revolutionary Guards during the Iran-Iraq War, using this connection to influence his father, and his appointment greatly satisfies the hardliners in the regime.
Will Protests Erupt?
Despite the potential for discontent, Citrinowicz believes immediate, widespread protests are unlikely. “Some hope that the appointment of such an extreme figure will spark protests, but during wartime, people do not take to the streets,” he said. The ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel is likely suppressing public demonstrations, as citizens prioritize national security concerns. However, this does not preclude future unrest.
Citrinowicz predicts that once the current war subsides, Iran will return to a state of economic crisis, infrastructure problems, and widespread frustration. “After the war, Iranian society will return to the same point – with an economic crisis, infrastructure problems, and deep frustration. So it is certainly possible that we will observe protests break out again. The question is how widespread they will be.” The regime is anticipated to respond with increased repression to preemptively quell any potential internal threats.
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei signals a potential shift towards a more authoritarian and conservative Iran. While the immediate aftermath may be characterized by a suppression of dissent, the underlying economic and social pressures suggest that the possibility of future protests remains a significant concern. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the regime can maintain control or if the appointment of a controversial leader will ultimately fuel further instability.
What remains to be seen is how the new Supreme Leader will navigate the ongoing conflict and address the deep-seated grievances within Iranian society. Share your thoughts in the comments below.
