2024-03-25 09:40:12
In an interview with the TAP agency, Mokhtar Lamari, holder of a doctorate in economics and university professor in Canada, explains that Tunisia must innovate in its public policies and renovate its monetary policies. According to him, this is the only way to get back on the path to growth and restart the process of socio-economic development.
“To counter current contingencies, Tunisia must innovate in its public policies and renovate its monetary policies, this is the only way to return to the path of growth and relaunch the process of socio-economic development,” declares Moktar Lamari, holder with a doctorate in economics and university professor in Canada.
In an interview with the TAP agency, Lamari, who is an international expert and university researcher in the evaluation of programs, regulations and public policies, believes that “the economic crisis shaking the country is multifaceted and multidimensional. The public treasury is drained, the debt is no longer sustainable and monetary policy is sacrificing investment on the altar of an erratic fight against inflation.
“Queues are increasing due to shortages of essential products. The products are beyond the reach of the ordinary citizen. Migratory flows towards Europe are not weakening, more than half a million young and old have left the country (especially irregularly) since 2011. And the hemorrhage also concerns the doctors and engineers expensively trained by the taxpayer taxes. In addition, nearly 700,000 people are unemployed, more or less long-term. The dinar has lost half its value in ten years.
And to continue, “the debt is unsustainable, the government is going into debt at high interest rates (9-13%), to pay a debt that has reached maturity. Investment is flat and infrastructure is crumbling, due to lack of public money to pay for maintenance.
Socioeconomic development at the heart of concerns
The economist believes that socio-economic development must be at the heart of concerns. We must restore hope and mobilize society as a whole around a certain number of strategic axes articulated in concrete measures aimed at the short term, but also the medium and long term, while putting human capital at the heart of the projects. to bring.
“Health, education, social services, infrastructure and security must fall within the competences and priorities of the State. The latter must refocus on its essential missions, namely the public good, leaving the private sector to take charge of the production sectors of private and commercial goods and services. We need less State, but a better State: efficient, honest and focused on results. And this requires a structured and courageous economic discourse from the government and its institutions. This discourse must focus on the rigor of governance, which must contrast with austerity and avoid its negative impacts on the development of human capital and social solidarity.
Five obligatory passages
To finance development and restart the engines of growth, Lamari recommends five paths or obligatory passages. It is, first of all, about creating budgetary space by revising all programs and measures falling within the responsibilities of the State and paid for by taxpayers’ taxes. There are hundreds of programs that have lost their relevance and effectiveness over time. It is then necessary to carry out a systematic review of all major programs which are costly, but which are no longer among the priorities and emergencies of the State. A workforce attrition approach is also recommended, by replacing, for example, only one in two civil servants who retire. A saving of 3 to 4 billion dinars can be expected at the end of a program which extends over 3 or 4 years. We can consider support measures to facilitate such attrition.
Secondly, Lamari emphasizes the need for modernization of the State, by introducing best governance practices through systematic strategic planning in all administrations to mobilize civil servants, institutionalization of evaluation and of the performance of establishments and public programs and an annual report to measure the results and achievements of managers. Recruitment and promotion based on merit must regain their place in public administration.
The third recommended avenue is, according to Lamari, reconciliation with international donors to mobilize capital and regain the confidence of foreign investors and lenders. “In the coming months, Tunisia can reconcile with the IMF, through the development of an alternative, convincing and structured approach, notably introducing the elements mentioned above. Tunisia cannot remain isolated and boycotted by international donors,” declares the academic. Lamari also considers that a new monetary policy is required. This must bring the Central Bank of Tunisia out of its allegiance to monetarist orthodoxy, by adopting an affordable interest rate, which must quickly converge towards that of neighboring countries (Morocco, Algeria, etc.). It is this measure which will give a boost to productive investment. According to his words, “Tunisia must regain its natural momentum in terms of investment (25% of GDP), by mobilizing savings and directing them towards production, rather than towards unproductive consumption (and wages ). It is doable, with more innovation, courage and foresight within the Board of Directors of the Central Bank.” The economist pleads, lastly, for the creation of new alliances with friendly and partner countries. “Once reconciliation has been made with the IMF, several emerging and other European countries can come to the aid of Tunisia to revitalize its development in all regions and all sectors with affordable interest rates allowing the profitability of investments, and especially job creation. Tunisia has a growth potential of 5 to 6% easily, but this will not happen without alliance and financing. The two million expatriate Tunisians can be of great help. They have the means and savings are largely hoarded, or invested in land, rather than in productive, technological and high value-added sectors for GDP and for the creation of hundreds of thousands of well-paid jobs. , finishes the specialist.
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