After two years of bloody war in Ukraine, the Kremlin seems to be considering a possible attack on Moldova as well. This former Soviet republic borders Ukraine and is home to the self-proclaimed Moldavian Republic of Pridnestrovia (Transnistria), a region similar to occupied Donbas. The signatory examined Russian propaganda statements and compared them to the rhetoric that preceded the large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Kremlin rhetoric hints at Moldova as the next target. On February 14 in the Russian State Duma, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made statements that Moldova is practically repeating what the Kremlin said on the eve of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine: The leadership of Moldova is yet another Western geopolitical project of the United States and The European Union. The West demands that Moldova choose between the E.U. and Russia, while considering Transnistria a “hostile pro-Russian enclave”. The West broke off the 5+2 negotiation process on Transnistria, which included Russia, Ukraine, Transnistria, Moldova and the OSCE as mediators, as well as the E.U. and the US as observers.
Russia will not allow the Transnistria issue to be resolved without it. 200,000 Russian citizens live in Transnistria. Moscow is concerned about their fate and will not allow them to become victims of “another Western adventure”. The spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, claimed that the Moldovan authorities are trying to “suffocate” Transnistria economically and prevent a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
Russia deployed the same rhetoric about Ukraine on the eve of the full-scale invasion: pro-Kremlin media falsely claimed that Zelensky is a representative of American interests and Ukraine does not exist as a state. Two months before the invasion, Putin asked for a US guarantee that NATO would not accept post-Soviet countries, including Ukraine (at that time no one invited Kiev to join). Still no invitation, even two years after the Russian invasion. At the same time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia stated that it intends to “protect the Russian speakers” in Ukraine.
Well-known Western “think tanks” highlight the Kremlin’s efforts to block Moldova’s EU membership. and pave the way for possible Russian aggression. Drawing parallels with tactics used prior to the 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine, Kremlin officials and the media are conducting “information” operations aimed at justifying future actions and possible escalation.
The self-proclaimed Moldavian Republic of Pridnestrovia (Transnistria) was formed after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. The predominantly Russian-speaking region declared independence from Moldova amid fears that Chisinau might seek reunification with neighboring Romania, with which it shares common history and language. A brief armed conflict then broke out between Transnistrian separatists supported by Russian troops (14th Army) on one side and Moldovan forces on the other, resulting in a marginal victory for the separatists and the Russian army. Although it does not officially recognize Transnistria’s sovereignty, Russia provides military, economic, political and diplomatic support.
The Russian body remained, reinforcing the existence of Transnistria. Moscow refers to these troops as “peacekeepers”. Transnistria, home to about half a million people, appears to be stuck in the 1990s. It has repeatedly sought to join Russia and since 2017 has used the Russian flag as its second “official” flag. However, the Kremlin has long ignored such initiatives. Transnistria’s unrecognized status, like that of occupied Donbas, suited Russia as long as it blocked Moldova’s progress towards the EU. and NATO. But in 2023, Moldova received the support of the European Commission to start EU accession negotiations, along with Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric has turned to the “protection of Russian citizens” in Moldova.
In February 2023, Moldovan President Maya Sandu revealed a Russian plan to destabilize the country and install Kremlin proxies in power, based on intelligence and from Ukrainian agencies. Sandu said Russia aims to block Moldova’s European integration and use it in Moscow’s war against Ukraine. Although the Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed the claims, an investigative report emerged a month later that revealed that Russia has a comprehensive plan for hybrid control of Moldova before 2030 without military intervention.
Instead, the goals included using Transnistria to pressure Chisinau (Moldova) while boosting pro-Russian sentiment to prevent NATO and the EU from aligning. “The Kremlin sees Moldova as a protectorate in Russia and not as part of the Russian Empire,” a Moldovan intelligence source told reporters. to the signatory two months ago.
Attempt to overthrow the government
According to Moldova’s intelligence chief Alexandru Musteață, Russia spent about one billion Moldovan lei ($55.5 million) to overthrow the democratic government and destabilize the situation in Moldova. One of the main beneficiaries was the Șhor Party, which the Constitutional Court of Moldova declared unconstitutional and dissolved in June 2023. According to the court’s decision, the Șhor Party posed a threat to the country’s sovereignty and independence. In November 2023, Moldova also banned Șansă, another pro-Russian party believed to be linked to Shor, from participating in local elections. Moldova’s pro-EU ambitions they will face a test in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, in which Sandou will not be running for re-election.
The harassment system has started
Since Moldova does not border Russia, the Kremlin could destabilize the country by using its troops in Transnistria – officially around 1,700 with Soviet military hardware (estimated at over 20,000 tons at the Cobasna ammunition depot). This issue is like a Damocles sword hanging over Moldova, allowing Russia to put military pressure on the Moldovan authorities. The Russian “peacekeeping” corps there is only two motorized battalions (a very small force.) However, Moldova cannot face them militarily, having a weak national army of only about 6,500 soldiers. President Sandou has acknowledged the lack of combat readiness that needs to be addressed. A recent incident involving a Russian Shahed drone that flew over Moldova and crashed near the Ukrainian border shows that little has changed. Moldovan military radars and early warning systems failed to detect the UAV.
Another possibility is that Russia may attempt a coup in Moldova similar to the one described by President Sandu. The country remains unstable and vulnerable. “Moldova is one of the countries most affected by the war in Ukraine, not only because of its physical proximity, but also because of its inherent vulnerabilities as a small, landlocked economy with close ties to both Ukraine and Russia . Russia’s hybrid war has polarized Moldovan politics, exploiting social rifts to try to spark anti-Western insurgencies. This multi-faceted coercion targeting Moldova’s instability raises concerns of further destabilization given the tensions of the war in Ukraine. Although military intervention is uncertain, threats to Moldova’s security are still real.
WITH ADDITIONAL MILITARY EQUIPMENT
Western countries are stepping up their support in Kiev
The E.U. is heavily bolstering the Ukrainian armed forces in an attempt to fill Kiev’s existing armament gaps. In particular, the Finnish Minister of Defense pointed out yesterday that Ukraine can use the weapons provided by his country to strike Russian territory. Anti Hakkanen speaking on state radio added that Finland has not imposed any restrictions on its military aid to Ukraine, while yesterday it approved the 22nd package of defense aid to Kiev amounting to about 190 million euros ($205 million). As with previous military aid packages, Helsinki did not disclose what was included in the packages or when they were delivered for security reasons. Hakkanen said the restrictions have been imposed mainly by countries that have supplied Ukraine with long-range weapons systems. He stressed that Ukraine should also strike military targets on the Russian side.
Hakkanen also urged allied countries to provide Ukraine with more long-range missiles, including Germany’s Taurus systems. “I urge Germany to think seriously about it. The German government knows it would be of enormous importance. If they want to help Ukraine win, and they could offer it to them,” he said. Finland has already provided 1.8 billion euros ($1.95 billion) in military aid to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Finland has also decided to participate in artillery and mine clearance collections, one of several alliance initiatives launched under the Defense Contact Group of Ukraine to support individual sectors of Kyiv’s armed forces.
France will focus on the direct delivery of aircraft-dropped bombs to Ukraine and not (at this stage) Mirage fighters, French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornou told a meeting of the Defense Committee of the country’s National Assembly. Lecornou stressed that France should pay attention to providing Ukraine with “useful” and “effective” military assistance to Ukrainian forces. The defense minister reminded lawmakers that Paris is fitting air-to-air bombs, such as the precision-guided A2SM, to Soviet-origin aircraft already owned by the Ukrainian military instead of sending Mirage fighters.
France and the Netherlands support the Czech Republic’s plan to procure hundreds of thousands of shells for Ukraine (and from countries outside the EU,) Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said. The Czech Republic has begun pushing a plan to jointly finance the purchase of 450,000 of artillery shells (outside the EU.) Czech President Petr Pavel said Prague has identified about 800,000 artillery shells abroad that could be sent to Ukraine within weeks, (if funding is provided by other partners) Macron said that “France she is completely open to the plan. The Czech proposal is completely consistent with what we did in terms of artillery. The Netherlands is providing 100 million euros ($108.5 million) to help buy the ammunition, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said, while Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said France and the Netherlands are among 15 European countries that have so far have signaled their support for the plan.
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