• Thai stocks fell sharply amid concerns about Fed rate hikes. Global economic recession and the COVID situation
Summary of the movement of the baht
The baht depreciated to 36.73 baht per dollar. This is the weakest level in 15 years and 8 months. since Nov. 2006, with the baht depreciating amid strong support from the dollar. From forecasts about the tendency to accelerate the tightening of US monetary policy During the week, the US dollar strengthened through parity against the euro. For the first time since Dec. The outlook for Asian currencies and the yuan also faces pressure from concerns over weak signs of the global economy and the risk of the coronavirus outbreak in China.
The magnitude of the Fed’s rate hike has become a major market issue this week. After the inflation data (both CPI and PPI) in June rose more than expected. and causing the market to begin to expect that The Fed may raise policy interest rates by 100 basis points at its July 26-27 meeting to stave off inflation. However, the forecast was partially slowed down. After a top Fed official expressed his support for a 75 basis points hike in interest rates.
On Friday, July 15, 2022, the baht hit its lowest level in 15 years and 8 months at 36.73 before closing at 36.60. compared to the level of 36.02 baht per US dollar On the previous Friday (July 8), while between July 11-15, foreign investors sold net Thai shares of 1,141 million baht while having a NET OUTFLOW status, leaving the bond market 2,079 million baht ( Net selling Thai bonds of 2,063 million baht and having expired debt securities of 16 million baht)
Next week (July 18-22) Kasikorn Bank sees the baht movement frame at 36.30-37.10 baht per dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors that need to be monitored, namely, the situation of foreign funding. Thailand’s export data for June European Central Bank meeting results Bank of Japan central bank of indonesia and the determination of the LPR loan interest rate of the People’s Bank of China While important US economic numbers are the housing market index. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey and PMI Index (Preliminary) July Homebuilding Startup Data Second-hand house sales in June and the number of weekly unemployment benefits claims In addition, the market is still waiting to track the June inflation figures. and the PMI index (preliminary) for July of the Eurozone, the UK and Japan as well.
Summary of the movement of the Thai stock market
The Thai stock market fell sharply from the previous week. Thai stocks have dropped since the beginning of the week in line with international stock markets amid concerns the Fed will raise interest rates more than 0.75% after data on non-farm payrolls and inflation in June. came out higher than expected In addition, Thai stocks face further pressure on concerns over the global recession and the outbreak of the omicron subspecies. The aforementioned negative factors have stimulated selling in many stocks. especially the banking, finance and real estate groups. Meanwhile, energy stocks added further pressure from lower global oil prices.
On Friday (July 15) the SET index closed at 1,533.37 points, down 1.57% from the previous week. The average daily trading value was 55,086.14 million baht, down 15.27% from the previous week, while the mai index fell 1.32% to close at 564.78 points.
For the next week (July 18-22), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. sees the SET index with support at 1,500 and 1,490 points, while resistance at 1,545 and 1,555 points, respectively. The KASIKORNBANK Research Center has assessed key factors that need to be monitored, namely 2Q22 operating results of companies listed on the SET, direction of foreign capital. including the COVID situation The key US economic data is home building data. Second-hand house sales in June and PMI in July (preliminary), while other foreign factors include the ECB and BOJ meetings, consumer price index in June. and the July PMI (preliminary) of the Eurozone, Britain and Japan, as well as China’s July LPR loan rate.