The baht continues to depreciate. While Thai stocks continued to fall from the previous week.
The baht continues to depreciate. While Thai stocks continued to fall from the previous week.
• The baht touched the weakest level in a month and a half after Thailand’s 4Q22 GDP slowed more than market expected. the dollar garden appreciating There is a positive factor from good US economic data, which supports the Fed’s tendency to continue to raise interest rates.
• SET Index dropped from last week. On concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates longer than expected. In addition, the Thai GDP figure grew lower than expected.
Summary of the movement of the baht
The baht continued to depreciate. which touched the weakest level in a month and a half at 34.62 baht per dollar. The baht moved in a narrow range at the beginning of the week. before depreciating in the middle of the week while the dollar strong recovery After the US consumer price index in January increased more than the market expected. In addition, high-ranking Fed officials continued to signal an increase in interest rates continuously in order to curb inflation, although the trend was decelerating, but at a slow pace. In addition, the depreciation of the baht was in line with foreign investors’ net selling positions in Thai bonds during the week.
The baht faced continued selling pressure towards the end of the week. After further negative factors, Thailand’s 4Q22 GDP grew only 1.4% YoY, below market expectations of 3.6% against the dollar. There are positive factors from economic data such as an increase in the Producer Price Index and a drop in the number of weekly unemployment claims. That supports the possibility of continued tightening of monetary policy by the Fed.
On Friday, February 17, 2023, the baht closed the market at 34.60 baht per dollar. (After touching the lowest level in a month and a half at 34.62 baht per US dollar) compared to 33.79 baht per US dollar. On the previous Friday (February 10) for the investment portfolio status of foreign investors between February 13-17, although foreign investors buy net Thai shares of 1,624 million baht, but have Net status. Outflows continued to exit the Thai bond market for another 15,405 million baht (net sales of 10,980 million baht and debt securities expired at 4,425 million baht).
Next week (February 20-24), Kasikorn Bank sees the movement of the baht at the level of 34.15-35.00 baht per dollar. While the Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors to monitor, including the investment status of foreign investors in the Thai financial market and the direction of Asian currencies. While important US economic numbers include second-hand home sales. new home sales and inflation as measured by the PCE/Core PCE Price Index in January; Consumer Confidence Index and Inflation Expectations in February; 4Q22 GDP (preliminary) and weekly jobless claims Including the minutes of the Fed meeting held on Jan. 31-Feb. of the eurozone, including the preliminary manufacturing/services PMI for February. of the Eurozone, England and the United States as well
Summary of movements in the Thai stock market
The Thai stock market index continued to fall from the previous week. However, Thai stocks moved in a narrow range for a short time at the beginning of the week before falling sharply later amid concerns that the Fed will raise interest rates at least twice after US inflation figures in January. The slowdown was less than the market expected. However, the Thai stocks rebounded briefly during the week. from the pressure to buy shares of a major electronic component manufacturer from the issue of par splits and better-than-expected earnings This has helped push the technology group up against other stocks that have fallen this week. Incidentally, Thai stocks fell again at the end of the week. After the 2022 Thai GDP figure grew lower than expected.
On Friday (February 17), the SET index closed at 1,651.67 points, down 0.77% from the end of last week. While the average daily trading value was 70,974.88 million baht, an increase of 21.39% from the previous week, while the mai index fell 6.11% to close at 569.48 points.
For the next week (February 20-24), Kasikorn Securities Company Limited sees that the Thai stock index has support at 1,640 and 1,630 points, while resistance is at 1,665 and 1,675 points, respectively. The Kasikorn Research Center assesses important factors to be monitored, including the Fed meeting minutes (31 Jan.-1 Feb.) as well as the direction of foreign capital. Important US economic data, including PMI index (preliminary), February, new home sales. Used Home Sales PCE/Core Index PCE Price Index Personal Income and Expenses in Jan. and GDP figures in the 4th quarter of 2022, while other foreign factors include setting the LPR loan interest rate in February of China, the PMI index (preliminary) in February of Japan, the Eurozone and England, as well as the price index. Consumers in Jan. of the eurozone