As the war in Ukraine enters its third month, the top commander of the Russian Armed Forces has raised concerns that Moscow aims to build a route through southern Ukraine to Transnistria separatist territories east of Moldova which is ruled by a separatist group on the Russian side
The commander’s remarks came amid several unexplained reports of bombings intransistria which local officials accused It was an infiltrator from Ukraine. while the Kiev government blamed the Russian provocation. to create an excuse to send soldiers in
Russia also claimed that The Russian-speaking population in Transnistria is being oppressed. It was the same pretext they used to invade Ukraine’s Donbas, prompting the Moldovan authorities to immediately deny it.
Granted, Moldova had reason to worry that Their internal conflicts are also being drawn into the war between Russia and Ukraine. But the key question is Will Moscow really be able to bring troops into Transnistria? Many analysts do not believe it can be done. or even if it actually happens The Russian army might not have been very well received by the townspeople.
transistria separatist territoriesMoldova
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused many disputed territories in Europe. including a narrow territory, but more than 1,300 miles long, along the Moldovan border connecting Ukraine. known as transistria
This land on the east bank of the Neester River. It was the site of the barracks of the Russian army during the last years of the Cold War. They announced their separation from Moldova. and established itself as a Soviet republic in 1990 to maintain ties with the Soviet Union. Against Moldova’s desire to become an independent state or integrate with Romania.
After Moldova became independent a year later. Russia immediately sent troops under the name of the peacekeeping force into Transistria. to support the separatists there. This led to an internal war that ended in 1992 with no winning side. Transnistria is not internationally recognized. including Russia that a country Moldova is considered Transnistria. It is a de facto separate territory. but also a part of them
since then Transnis prepared the role of thousands of Russian soldiers. There are currently about 1,500 Russian soldiers, they have a flag, a constitution, a central bank and their own Independence Day. There is a capital city called Tiraspol which consists of many major roads. and a large statue of Vladimir Lenin, former Soviet leader, in the town square.
Transnistry has a population of about 500,000, indigenous to Moldovan, Russian and Ukrainian people living together. It has its own presidential and provincial elections. while the economy is mainly driven by industrial output. and heavily reliant on Russian subsidies. A conglomerate known as Sheriff has almost overwhelming power. Own factories, shopping malls, and gas pumps.
Mysterious bomb at Transnistria
On Monday, April 25, several explosions sounded in Tiraspol. capital city of Transnistria near the Ministry of State Security Building Damage to the surrounding buildings. But no injuries were reported. Then the next morning A bomb exploded at the Transnistria Radio and Television Center. Damages 2 radio towers.
The Ukrainian side immediately accused Russia of an attempt by Russia to create the situation. which may lead to the use of military operations They also blame Russia for firing cruise missiles. Destroy the bridge over the Neester River. which connects the city of Odessa south-west to the Moldovan border. to cut off the two regions
Ms Maia Sandu, President of Moldova came out to condemn the attack within Transnistria. It is said to be a provocation to draw the country into acts of detriment to peace. Following a series of unrest ahead of this week including several bomb threats at schools and medical centers. which Ms Sandu blamed on the work of war-hungry groups seeking to increase tensions in the region.
The fire of war may spread into Moldova.
The idea that Russia was looking to build a geographical link to Transnistria has been around since the 90s to expand its influence in Western Europe. Anxiety erupted after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, which allowed them to attack Ukraine from both the south and east from the Donbas region occupied by Russian rebels.
Major Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of the Russian Central Military District, confirmed the idea on April 22, saying his country was aiming to build a land route linking the region.Don BasEastern Ukraine and Crimea and the occupation of southern Ukraine will give the Russian army access to Transnistria where the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed.
Although Russia has only recently admitted that it is looking at Trans-Nistrian territory. But in reality, they probably had planned it from the start. During the first week of the invasion of Ukraine A video clip has been published online. It shows Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko standing near a large map that says. Transistria is also one of the potential targets. before at a later time Belarusian officials will come out and make excuses. The map is inaccurate.
In addition, the saying that Russian speakers are being violated. It is the same sentence that Vladimir Putin used to justify his invasion of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine in February. This prompted Moldova’s foreign ministry to issue a statement denying Moscow’s allegations. and immediately summoned the Russian ambassador to express concern.
What are the chances that the Russian army will enter Transistria?
The Russian army is now focusing its efforts on regaining control of the Donbas region. to the east of Ukraine completely After failing to invade Kiev until it was heavily damaged.
The condition prompted Michael Kaufman, a Russian expert at the non-profit research organization CNA in Arlington. Virginia The Russian army was not believed to be capable of invading southern Ukraine any longer to the west. Because they should have used all their strength to invade Donbas.
Mihai Popsoy, a Moldovan parliamentarian, has the same opinion. And that until now there is no intelligence data indicating that The Russian army will move in the direction of Transnistria.
But even if the Russian army actually entered Transistria They also may not have been well received due to Transnistria’s stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. seems to be leaning towards peace support They did not outright condemn or support Russia. and accepting more than 27,000 Ukrainians displaced by war
Niku Popescu, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova told the media on Tuesday that from their assessment of the situation in Transnistria. Few would trade their current situation for becoming part of a war zone. But he couldn’t predict what would happen in the future. And Moldova will continue to monitor all threats.
Author : Titchon Sawangsri
Source: BBC, CNN, washingtonpost