The International Space Station will execute a controlled deorbit into the Pacific Ocean’s Point Nemo by 2031, orchestrated by a joint US-Russian operational agreement. According to Roscosmos and NASA, the orbital descent phase will officially initiate in 2028, leveraging two Russian Progress vehicles and an American USDV spacecraft to safely decommission the aging 400-tonne orbital laboratory.
Engineering the Orbital Exit Strategy
Decommissioning a structure with the footprint of a football field requires precise orbital mechanics. According to Roscosmos disclosures, the multi-year descent will begin in 2028 and take approximately two years to fully execute. The physical architecture of the station, which orbits at an average altitude of 400 kilometers and completes 15.5 revolutions daily at hypersonic speeds, has sustained heavy thermal fatigue and radiation stress over decades of continuous operation. Structural inspection logs note that metal fatigue, thermal cycling, and micro-fractures have accumulated across the modular framework originally seeded by the launch of the Zarya module in 1998.
To prevent uncontrolled atmospheric re-entry, flight controllers will utilize thrusters mounted on the Zvezda service module alongside incoming spacecraft to lower the perigee. The final terminal phase will direct surviving structural remnants away from inhabited landmasses, targeting the remote oceanic graveyard known as Point Nemo.
Shifting Economics and the Commercial Low-Earth Orbit Transition
Maintaining the station demands billions of dollars annually, a fiscal allocation that space agencies are redirecting toward next-generation infrastructure. NASA has pivoted its strategy toward supporting private, commercial low-Earth orbit destinations. This transition marks the end of an era born out of post-Cold War cooperation, uniting five participating space agencies: NASA, Roscosmos, JAXA, ESA, and the Canadian Space Agency.
While the ISS represents the ninth crewed space station architecture in history—following Soviet Salyut, Almaz, and Mir programs alongside America’s Skylab—its operational lifespan has reached structural limits. As agencies wind down their commitment to the aging platform, commercial operators are racing to establish alternative platforms. Meanwhile, China’s Tiangong space station continues operations in low-Earth orbit at an altitude of approximately 393 kilometers, having maintained continuous crewed presence since 2021.
The Technical Blueprint of the Decommissioning Phase
- Initial Descent Trigger: 2028, marking the start of orbital lowering maneuvers.
- Total Descent Duration: Approximately two years of controlled orbital decay.
- Disposal Vector: Point Nemo, Pacific Ocean graveyard for spacecraft debris.
- Designated Fleet: Russian Progress cargo craft and American USDV spacecraft.
The mechanics of the deorbit plan reflect strict engineering tolerances designed to eliminate the threat of unburned structural elements impacting populated areas. By coordinating bilateral protocols, NASA and Roscosmos are setting a precedent for the decommissioning of large-scale orbital assets as the industry shifts toward commercially managed platforms in low-Earth orbit.
