NATO military officials are bracing for a worst-case scenario ahead of the November 3 midterms, with European diplomats warning that Donald Trump could severely scale back United States participation in the alliance if the Republican Party loses control of Congress, Politico reported, citing officials and diplomats.
According to reports, diplomats fear that a Democratic victory blocking Trump’s domestic legislative agenda would prompt the president to target the military alliance as a mechanism to rally his MAGA base. Sources indicated that the White House could pull thousands of American troops out of Europe, slash funding for the bloc, or restrict the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine. One diplomat warned that Trump “could be very pissed off” following the vote and that “he’ll be very harsh.”
Pentagon Adjustments and Regional Force Levels
Troop drawdowns are already underway across the continent. Approximately half of the 2,000 U.S. soldiers stationed in Romania departed last year, while another 5,000 service members are currently in the process of withdrawing from Germany. While U.S. forces in Europe currently number around 80,000, U.S. law currently imposes a minimum limit of 76,000 on troop presence in Europe.
However, defense analysts suggest those legal boundaries might not withstand executive pressure. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank, told Politico that it is doubtful troop floors would survive legal scrutiny and noted that Trump has been very willing to ignore the courts and ignore congressional funding guidance.
Should a sprawling drawdown materialize, European allies would struggle significantly to replace critical U.S. assets, including electronic warfare capabilities, air defense systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refueling, and some types of logistics, Kavanagh added.
White House Defense of Alliance Contributions
Responding to inquiries from Politico, White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales pushed back against the administration’s critics. She insisted that Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else by pressing member states to elevate defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, boosting the American military footprint in Greenland, and pursuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict.
“The president will never settle for the West’s managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad,” Wales stated.
At the same time, Wales emphasized that Trump remains firm that NATO allies should have been there for the US during the war with Iran. After European members balked at joining the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against the Islamic Republic—with nations like Spain and Italy barring the Pentagon from utilizing bases on their territory for attacks—Trump dismissed the bloc as a “paper tiger” and described American membership as being “beyond reconsideration.”
Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović expressed skepticism that a complete exit would materialize, telling Politico that speculation regarding a U.S. withdrawal has persisted without coming to fruition and emphasizing that Congress retains final authority over troop reductions.
Pending Electoral Stakes
National polling averages published by NBC News ahead of the vote indicated that 52% of surveyed Americans prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress following the midterms, compared to 44% favoring Republican control. Trump’s approval rating stands at 38% on the eve of the election.
Neither the Department of Defense nor NATO officials responded to requests for comment from Politico regarding the contingency planning.
