With New Zealand’s major parties polling below the 30% mark and nine days remaining until election day, minor parties hold the balance of power, forcing political leaders to weigh whether they will stick to rigid coalition red lines or abandon them to secure a governing majority.
The list of parties New Zealand’s leaders are willing to work with is shrinking rapidly as coalition deal-breakers emerge as the defining theme of the campaign, 1News reported. Recent polls placing minor parties in the driver’s seat—such as a 1News Verian poll showing Opportunity on 6%—mean leaders face awkward choices on election night.
National Draws the Hardest Line
Christopher Luxon, heading the National Party, has crossed off a greater number of prospective coalition allies than any of his rivals, explicitly excluding Labour, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and The Opportunity Party. Luxon crossed off Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori in January, arguing that Labour and the Greens would spend, tax, and borrow excessively, while Te Pāti Māori holds a separatist agenda.
Opportunity joined National’s exclusion list in July over its land tax and universal basic income policies. Despite subsequent polls showing right-wing paths to power that would require Opportunity, Luxon has refused to budge on the restriction. Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong dismissed the stance as old-fashioned tribalism, stating her party would approach whichever major party wins the most seats first.
Labour’s No-Go Zone
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has ruled out National, ACT and New Zealand First. Hipkins definitively ruled out New Zealand First in August, citing overt racism from Winston Peters and Shane Jones. Peters hit back on social media, accusing Hipkins of severe learning difficulties and noting New Zealand First had ruled out working with Labour since the 2023 election.
While Labour’s door remains open to the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, Hipkins imposed strict conditions earlier this month by banning both parties from holding the police or corrections portfolios. This followed an incident where Green and Te Pāti Māori MPs posed for photos with Mongrel Mob members at a South Auckland gang pad. Hipkins also shut down any suggestion that Swarbrick could serve as finance minister, stating Barbara Edmonds will be a finance minister.
Greens keep their options on the table
Although Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson have firmly expressed their desire for a new administration, the Green Party has refrained from completely closing the door on any specific political group. Meanwhile, ACT leader David Seymour centered his campaign on locking Labour out, grouping the Greens and Te Pāti Māori into an unworkable category while remaining non-committal on Opportunity.
Opportunity has drawn its own hard line against New Zealand First, with Wong stating she would not support any government with Peters as foreign minister after he made racially charged remarks in the House. Peters fired back on X, dismissing Opportunity as a bunch of pinko communists and confirming New Zealand First has ruled out all the parties other than its current coalition partners.
Te Pāti Māori has avoided ruling out any party outright, tying its fortunes directly to the left by directing supporters to give it their electorate vote and their party vote to the Greens or Labour.
