Voting has closed in New Zealand’s general election, with results beginning to trickle in. Neither major bloc entered election night with the numbers to govern alone, and the final outcome may not be known for weeks.
Here is why that matters well beyond the two main parties: the final pre-election Roy Morgan poll put the National-led bloc of National, ACT and New Zealand First on 47.5% of the vote, down 4.5 points, against 44% for the Labour-led opposition of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, up 2.5 points. Both figures fall short of a majority.
The 8% party that could pick the prime minister
Roy Morgan’s October survey showed the Opportunity Party surging 1.5 points to 8% support — enough, on the pollster’s projection, to enter Parliament for the first time by winning 10 seats. The projection had the National bloc on 57 seats (National: 32, ACT: 13 and New Zealand First: 12) against 55 for the opposition (Labour: 33, Greens: 19, Te Pāti Māori: 3).
“Such a close result brings the centrist Opportunity Party into the picture,” Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said when releasing the final poll. “Opportunity Party will decide who the next Government will be and whether National’s leader Christopher Luxon remains Prime Minister, or whether Labour Leader Chris Hipkins will have a second stint as Prime Minister after holding the role in 2023.”
The poll also sketched a divided electorate: Roy Morgan found a majority of 51% of women favour the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition ahead of the National-led Government on 42%, with younger women aged 18-49 favouring the opposition 54% to 40%.
A campaign fought on cost of living
Voting closed after a campaign overshadowed by cost of living pressures and an economy buffeted by international shocks. The National Party has been making its case to stay in government and Labour has tried to prise back votes it needs to regain office.
But there is a catch, and academics watching the race were blunt about it. Both major parties ran negative campaigns, and the policy contest largely disappeared.
“I’m not sure anyone has much enjoyed it,” Richard Shaw, a professor of politics at Massey University, told the ABC. “The policy contest which marked the opening stanzas has largely fallen away into an acrimonious exchange between the left and the right about how to game the electoral system through strategic voting.”
That is Richard Shaw, a professor of politics at Massey University, speaking to the ABC. Tom Jamieson, a senior lecturer in political science at Victoria University of Wellington, told the ABC the two leaders spent much of the campaign attacking each other’s standing rather than their records: Labour seized on the unpopularity of Christopher Luxon, while National sought to exploit similar sentiment about Chris Hipkins.
“For a party leading the incumbent government, National ran less on their record than you might have expected on their record and more about what their opponents were likely to do in power,” Jamieson said. The smaller parties — New Zealand First, ACT, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunity party — focused their efforts on policy initiatives and their vision for the country. In an electorate with a plurality that has consistently indicated they are on the wrong track, Jamieson suggested, that focus could pay off.
The blackout, the dogs, and the long three weeks ahead
Election day itself ran under some strict campaign rules. A blackout period descends on the election campaign from midnight, allowing Kiwis the chance to vote without interference or annoyance. No campaigners, no how-to-vote cards, no roadside signage, and no party-branded clothing or rosettes on candidates. From midnight until 7pm on election day, when polls close, no Kiwis are allowed to post or share any content that is likely to, or is intended to, influence someone’s candidate vote or party vote — a rule that is nigh on unenforceable in the social media age. Kiwi outlet The Spinoff keeps its election-day coverage interesting by publishing pictures of dogs outside polling places.
Reform of those rules is itself now part of the political conversation. The government opted against legislating change during its first term, while Greens co-leader Chloe Swarbrick said she would support reform. “Some of it feels pretty arcane. And it’s due for an evolution,” she said. Chris Hipkins said there was a good reason to retain the election day blackout: fatigue. After a long slog campaigning for office, candidates and volunteers get a legally enforceable break on election day.
And the wait may be longer than the campaign. Results released on election night arrive over several hours, but the official count begins the following day, and the Electoral Commission is aiming to release the official results by November 27. Special votes — which take longer to count — may be consequential.
Professor Shaw told the ABC, “We may have a clear result tonight, but that seems unlikely,” and noted that he expected it would be a long three weeks.
What the preliminary count will — and will not — settle
The pollster’s numbers show why nobody should call this race from the first hours of counting: a 3.5-point bloc lead translates into a parliamentary margin on its projection, well inside the range that special votes could overturn.
The table below sets out Roy Morgan’s final pre-election projection, the numbers against which tonight’s preliminary count will be measured.
| Bloc / party | Vote share (Roy Morgan, October) | Projected seats |
|---|---|---|
| National-led government (total) | 47.5% (down 4.5) | 57 |
| — National | 26.5% | 32 |
| — ACT | 11% | 13 |
| — New Zealand First | 10% | 12 |
| Labour-led opposition (total) | 44% (up 2.5) | 55 |
| — Labour | — | 33 |
| — Greens | — | 19 |
| — Te Pāti Māori | — | 3 |
| Opportunity Party | 8% (up 1.5) | 10 |
What remains unknown is the question everything else hangs on: whether the Opportunity Party clears the threshold on the night, and whom it backs. Until the Electoral Commission certifies the official result by November 27, New Zealand’s next prime minister is a matter of arithmetic still being counted.
