The Atlanta Falcons started the 2022 season in a way they are familiar with – despite a decent performance and a high lead, they ended up empty-handed. Head coach Arthur Smith reacted angrily and not very confidently, and seemed to overlook the essentials.
When a team has an identity that has been firmly established for years – if not decades – it is not easy as a new head coach to change it. Oil tankers and braking distances and such. But if you’ve had a year and two offseasons and three-fourths of the roster is already your guys, and you and your coaching staff made big preseason announcements about a new tough culture and an end to the inadequacies, then this is it second season also a referendum on your ability as a leader.
Arthur Smith didn’t look good in the category on Sunday after the Falcons’ bitter 26-27 loss to the Saints: when asked legitimately about his – repeatedly – conservative approach to late-night leads, he was scathing and aggressive. He told the journalists present that they are welcome to continue writing obituaries like in May and that the team should be ranked 45th (out of 32?), but that they will certainly not give up. Clap on the podium desk, exit, no further questions.
Saints vs. Falcons: The normal fourth quarter
The demand was justified because Smith – as he did several times in his rookie season – did not show the necessary aggressiveness in the fourth quarter with a lead that is necessary in today’s NFL to be able to survive. An intentional delay of game (with the following punt) at the 50 with an 8 point lead 7:12 minutes before the end was comparatively harmless.
Doing the same thing again at the Saints-42 with a 2-point lead and walking just a yard with 54 seconds on the clock was pretty hair-raising. About 9 percent Win Probability went on here, loud Ben Baldwins 4th Down Calculator.
Defensively, calls for too soft coverage could also be heard on Sunday. Noisy TruMedia however, the fourth quarter was more aggressive than the first half with a 35.7 percent blitz rate. Individual errors such as Casey Heyward’s coverage of Jarvis Landry were more likely to be the causes here.
Arthur Smith: “I could have phrased it differently”
Smith then showed up on Monday a little more forgiving with the media. He admitted that he got too emotional at the moment and that he shouldn’t have accused anyone present. He made it clear that he could have phrased it differently and that an important part of objectivity is self-criticism, which he starts with himself.
Falcons: Bad processes with bad results
Unfortunately, the fact that Smith places so much more emphasis on obituaries in May than on further developing his own coaching and strategic decisions is bitter for the future of the team. For his punt decision, there was no reflection beyond, “Looking back, I would have done it differently.”
That the very point of objective analysis in such cases is that it shouldn’t be about the result seems entirely elusive to Smith. Of course, in hindsight, every coach wants to change bad calls. But good coaches change their processes in such a way that they generate positive value over a longer period of time with good and bad results. Playing 4th and 1 might end badly sometimes. But on a day when you surprisingly dominated the line of scrimmage and one yard would have won you the game while your defense has just allowed two long touchdown drives and is clearly not coping, you should be able to trust the game to win with your offense.
The bitter thing is that Smith otherwise did a very good job in week 1. The Falcons played far beyond their means and easily covered the spread as an almost 6-point underdog. There was a pass rush for 45 minutes, there were exotic Dean Pees pressure packages and there was a functional offense, even though Saints Head coach Dennis Allen had Kyle Pitts well under control. The Falcons blocked well on the run with their, shall we say, not very talented offensive line and didn’t allow a sack against the very formidable Saints front seven. Nobody in Atlanta can remember the last time that happened against the Saints.
Through all of this, the Falcons would be quite capable of becoming a different team from the 2021, which won games despite playing poorly. But unless Smith develops himself, the ceiling will be Week 1: Maybe aggressive, probably lost, frustrating as hell.