Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, marking the first recorded hurricane of the Atlantic season far later than usual after a historic six-decade dry spell.
Here is why that matters right now: satellites have monitored Atlantic hurricanes since 1966, and over those 60 years, meteorologists have never recorded a calendar year where the basin went this deep into the official June-to-November hurricane season without a single storm reaching the 32.6 meters-per-second threshold. But there is a catch. While the Atlantic remained exceptionally quiet, the Pacific basin raced ahead, logging nine hurricanes—well above its normal full-season average—including Hurricane Polo, which struck Mexico and dumped heavy rain on California in late September.
Tracking the Path Toward the Gulf Coast
As of Thursday morning, Isaias churned in the Gulf of Mexico roughly 700 kilometers south of New Orleans, threatening to make landfall somewhere between Louisiana and Florida late Friday or early Saturday. The U.S. National Hurricane Center warns that the system will likely intensify before hitting a coastline already scarred by historical disasters. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency across 25 counties as authorities prepare for up to 250 millimeters of rainfall in isolated spots alongside destructive storm surge.
In Celestún on Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, local fishers pulled their boats ashore on Thursday to await the storm’s passage. Forecasters note that the anticipated strike zone bears the historical scars of some of the nation’s worst hurricanes, most notably Hurricane Katrina, which submerged large parts of New Orleans in 2005 and claimed nearly 1,400 lives.
The El Niño Factor Behind the Silence
Researchers point to the global weather phenomenon known as El Niño to explain the quietude in the Atlantic basin. While El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean, its atmospheric ripples alter wind patterns and humidity on a planetary scale. El Niño leads to drier air and winds that make it difficult for hurricanes to form.
| Basin | Season Activity | Primary Meteorological Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Atlantic | First hurricane formed (Isaias) | El Niño |
| Pacific | Nine hurricanes recorded to date | El Niño |
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, broad warming trends do not necessarily increase the total frequency of tropical storms, but they can make them more powerful.
