2023-12-31 08:09:00
NMC versus LFP
Currently, lithium-ion batteries are used in electric cars around the world. Within these lithium-ion batteries, there are two main technologies: NMC (nickel, manganese, cobalt) and LFP (lithium, iron, phosphate).
“NMC batteries, used by European manufacturers, have better autonomy and better recyclability,” explains Peter Tom Jones. But NMC batteries cost more than LFPs because they contain cobalt and nickel, two very expensive raw materials.
Given their higher intrinsic value, NMC batteries are also more easily recyclable than LFPs. “Umicore, for example, does not need subsidies to recycle NMC batteries,” explains Peter Tom Jones. The value of cobalt and nickel is high enough to make recycling economically attractive.”
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While China has taken over the production of LFP batteries, certain European manufacturers have decided to turn to this technology. Their goal is to offer cheaper electric cars, by equipping them with an LFP battery rather than NMC. For Peter Tom Jones, this is not necessarily good news. “Given their low intrinsic value, LFP batteries may not be recycled,” he explains. By turning massively to this cheap technology, Europe could create a huge stock of potentially toxic waste. Of course, Europe could use subsidies or taxes to force recycling, but this is not an ideal business model for companies.
But what technologies could come to market in the coming years? If Peter Tom Jones does not see “upheaval coming in the years to come”, developments are expected.
Umicore relies on HLM technology
Umicore has announced that it will begin production of HLM (high lithium manganese) batteries in 2026. The advantage of this battery is that it uses manganese, a theoretically cheap and abundant raw material. The HLM battery should therefore be less expensive than the NMC, while offering better autonomy than the LFP. According to Peter Tom Jones, HLM technology can be considered the “European answer” to Chinese LFP technology. “But the problem is the same as for LFP technology,” explains Peter Tom Jones. The low intrinsic value of the HLM battery will make it more complicated to recycle.” However, Umicore has the technology to recycle HLM batteries. The question is whether it will be profitable without subsidies or taxes.
Solid-state batteries in a few years
Solid electrolyte batteries are also getting a lot of attention. Rather than being liquid, the electrolyte, placed between the anode and the cathode, is solid. According to the promoters of the solid battery, it will increase autonomy and charging speed. “Solid-state batteries are an evolution rather than a revolution,” nevertheless tempers Peter Tom Jones. These are always lithium-ion batteries, whose electrolyte is solid rather than liquid. In addition, these batteries will remain expensive and will be aimed at the upper class able to afford expensive cars. Although solid-state batteries look promising, they will not arrive on the market for several years. BMW, for example, recently announced that it would not release a solid-state battery vehicle until 2030.
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The sodium revolution
According to Peter Tom Jones, we will have to wait for the arrival of sodium-ion batteries to witness a real revolution in the world of batteries. According to the International Energy Agency, the use of sodium has a double advantage. Thus, sodium is a relatively cheap raw material and the supply of which is not critical. According to the IEA, the sodium battery, developed by the Chinese company CATL, costs 30% less than the Chinese LFP battery, which itself is 20 to 40% cheaper than the NMC battery.
However, sodium batteries have low energy density. This means that the battery takes up more space for the same capacity. “Initially, sodium batteries will not be a solution for cars,” explains Peter Tom Jones. They could be used to store excess electricity produced by renewable energies”. According to the IEA, sodium batteries could nevertheless be used in inexpensive electric cars with a shorter range.
Protect European industry?
Furthermore, Peter Tom Jones calls on Europe to protect itself from Chinese competition. “Otherwise, we risk reliving what happened with photovoltaics,” he declares. The Chinese copied our technology and reproduced it at a lower cost thanks to their state subsidies and their lower ESG criteria. Europe must therefore protect itself if it wants to avoid becoming a museum of industry. It has already happened with photovoltaics and it is happening with wind turbines and the automobile industry”.
Why is replacing an electric car battery so expensive?
According to Peter Tom Jones, China’s dominance in the production of LFP batteries is part of a broader strategy aimed at “destroying the European automobile industry”. “This is why the Chinese have invested so heavily in the LFP battery,” he declares. It was easier to enter the European market with cars 40% cheaper.”
He advises opening mines in Europe as well as refining factories for lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. According to him, the Nordic countries are full of these types of critical raw materials. Uncertainty regarding the battery technology that will prevail could, however, slow down investments. “At present, there are no lithium mines and no lithium refining plants in Europe,” he says. But, in twenty years, we may no longer need lithium if the sodium battery becomes necessary.” Mining companies therefore want to launch now in Europe to be sure to make their investments profitable.
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