2023-10-07 03:02:00
“North Korea may launch 200 submarine nuclear missiles”
“20 Romeo-class submarine conversion scenario
US expert: “North Korea has modified its submarines in a bizarre way”
■ Host: Anchor Kim Dae-geun, Anchor Uhm Ji-min
■ Appearance: Wang Seon-taek, Director of the Global Diplomacy Center at the Korea Pyongyang Policy Institute
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◇Anchor> There was also analysis that North Korea could increase its submarine capabilities in the future and be able to launch 200 nuclear missiles. Is this possible?
◆ King’s Choice> It may be possible, but the reality is very unlikely. I think we can summarize it this way. This was calculated mechanically by a private research institute in Austria. If you calculate it mechanically, it is known that North Korea has 70 submarines. Among them, 20 are Romeo class, weighing about 2,000 tons.
North Korea first unveiled a new submarine and a new type of submarine in September, a month ago, and said it would continue to remodel new submarines. So, we will remodel the Romeo-class submarine, a 2,000-ton class, into a 3,000-ton class, and build 20 such submarines.
Then, there are now 10 facilities and launch tubes that can launch 10 ballistic missiles from one submarine. So, if 20 ships fire 10 rounds, that’s 200 rounds. So, if all the scenarios that North Korea wants are carried out, the best scenario of launching 200 rounds in 10 years is overlapped in 3 or 4 layers, that will happen. As I mentioned, there are many analyzes that say that that submarine has a functional problem.
At this point, I have to apologize. Four weeks ago, when I was describing that submarine, I slightly exaggerated and gave an incorrect explanation. What that means is that there are two problems with that submarine.
As you can see, there is a new structure on the back next to the bridge, so there is something heavy inside. There is analysis that if that happens, it will be difficult for a submarine to navigate normally. So the navigation is unstable and another thing is that that is the launch tube right now.
A large structure on the lower back. There are 10 launch tubes. There is an analysis that says that if that happens, it will be difficult for the launch tube to operate normally. However, when I explained that, the launcher said that the submarine could be destroyed by the flames and high heat of the ballistic missile, but that part was a completely wrong explanation.
Because when a submarine fires a ballistic missile, it does something called cold launching. It does not directly ignite by firing a flame, but rather floats it out of the water, whether it is 20m or 30m. It is lifted up using air pressure, then ignited in the air and launched.
So, there is no way the submarine will be destroyed by flames and high heat, but when I was explaining the instability of the launch tube, it was explained that way. We apologize once again for any confusion. In any case, there is no doubt that it is unstable, and as I mentioned earlier, the situation in which 200 nuclear missiles can be launched as predicted by the Austrian organization is not impossible in my opinion, but it is very unlikely. can.
◇Anchor> However, there is some analysis that North Korea’s unveiling of a new submarine is a deception tactic. What does this mean?
◆ King’s Choice> That’s also one of the things I mentioned earlier, but as I said, the modification of the submarine itself was done in such a bizarre way that I can say that it was a design change for show rather than considering actual combat, and the new submarine. While reporting, North Korea said that.
That’s the launching ceremony right now. The launching ceremony is the first time you float on the water. After the launch ceremony, it takes one to two years for the Navy to put it into actual operation. Because I had to dive and go, they said it was handed over to the Navy during the launch ceremony.
There is a problem with that, and the name of that ship is the Kim Gun-ok Hero. The Kim Gun-ok hero ship itself is part of a deception tactic. A person named Kim Gun-ok is a captain, and he is said to be a hero in 1950, but what the war hero said is not true. Therefore, I think there is a possibility that there is an overall deception tactic.
◇Anchor> I understand.
Excerpt from conversation: Lee Seon, Digital News Team Editor
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