The nuclear-powered Russian icebreaker Yakutia on November 22, 2022 in Saint Petersburg Bild: Archyde.com
Norwegian intelligence services warn of an increasingly “unpredictable” neighbor Russia with weakened conventional military capabilities. The nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea have therefore become more important for Moscow.
In the event of an escalation of the war in Ukraine and a conflict between Russia and NATO, Norway will be one of the first targets, the Norwegian intelligence services assume. The “unpredictable” neighbor Russia is mentioned in the annual risk analysis “Focus” as the greatest threat to Norway. Even if Russia is currently conventionally weakened by the war in Ukraine, it is no less dangerous, according to the report published on Monday.
It warns that with the weakening of Russia’s conventional military capabilities, the importance of nuclear weapons for Moscow has increased significantly. A key part of the country’s nuclear capabilities is on submarines and surface ships in the Northern Fleet. Tactical nuclear weapons pose a “serious threat,” but Russia’s underwater capabilities, anti-satellite weapons and cyber capabilities also pose a threat to Norway and the United States NATO out of.
The naval and air forces are “essentially intact” and Russia will rebuild its military capabilities within five to ten years. In the event of a conflict, only a very short warning period is possible due to the supersonic and hypersonic missiles developed by Russia.
Russia could become even more authoritarian
The geopolitical role norway has become more important, according to the report, as Europe will be dependent on Norwegian energy supplies for the foreseeable future. According to the study, acts of sabotage against the infrastructure would become more likely if the conflict continued to escalate. They would become all the more likely the worse things are going for Russia in Ukraine.
The prospect of Sweden and Finland joining NATO Moscow created a security problem, it is said. Northern Europe is of crucial importance for Moscow in a potential conflict with NATO, since the region is close to the Russian core areas.
NATO expansion means that Russia’s land border with NATO will more than double, from 1,200 to about 2,600 kilometers. This also has an impact on the stationing of Russian troops on the Kola Peninsula. Currently there is due to the war in the Ukraine According to estimates by the Norwegian authorities, only a fraction of the Russian troops are still stationed there.
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According to the analysis, Russia’s domestic political situation is unstable, the power elite is facing an inevitable generational change, which could lead to power struggles within the elite. In connection with a demographic crisis and an economic downturn, this could lead to a fragmentation of the state apparatus and to regionalization, in extreme cases even to a collapse of the regime and a civil war.
It is assumed that Russia will become even more authoritarian and militarized in the near future; today there are hardly any signs of democratization in the country. However, an unstable Russia also means that decision-making processes in relation to Norway and the region as a whole become less predictable.
The report also warns that the Arctic could become an increasingly arena of great-power rivalry as the war in Ukraine pushes Russia to further assert its interests, which it sees as threatened.
What: FAZ