In Asian markets, oil prices fell, in a sign that traders believe the 20% rise in prices so far this year has factored into the escalation scenario in the region.
“Certainly in the next few days we will see volatility,” Peter Maguire, an analyst at XM.com told the BBC. He does not rule out that if the choice of self-restraint prevails, we will see Brent, which last Friday closed above 92 dollars a barrel, fall below 90 dollars.
On the other hand, in case of harsh retaliation, the $100 barrier can be broken very quickly. In yesterday’s note to investors, Goldman Sachs stressed that already at today’s price levels, 5 to 10 dollars constitute the so-called risk premium, i.e. the profit that investors demand in order to be covered against risks.
Citigroup: The scenario for oil at $100 is feasible
Citigroup’s base case scenario is that tensions will remain “extremely high” in the Middle East, supporting prices. That prompted the bank to raise its near-term price forecasts, with its three-month target for US WTI crude rising by $8 a barrel.
“What has not been priced into the current market, in our view, is a possible continuation of an immediate conflict between Iran and Israel, which we estimate could lead oil prices to trade as high as +$100/ barrel, depending on the nature of developments,” analysts including Max Layton wrote in a note.
SVB Energy: Keeping the balance
“If the recent retaliatory attacks between Iran and Israel stop at their current level, or if they are restrained from escalating in the region without causing damage to oil production and export facilities, the market is expected to maintain its balance,” said Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International LLC. “Market fundamentals appear solid, with OPEC+ keeping a close eye on rising demand expected for the summer period. If there are supply shortages in the market, OPEC+ could consider reducing voluntary cuts and increasing production.”
ING Groep: Already invoiced
“The market had already priced in some form of attack, while limited damage and no loss of life means there is potential for a more measured response from Israel,” ING Groep NV strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note. . “How Israel will respond is now the main uncertainty.”
For oil, “the first risk is that tougher sanctions are imposed on Iran’s oil, which could lead to a loss of oil supply of between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day,” they said. Other possible scenarios include an Israeli attack on Iranian energy infrastructure or Iran blocking the Straits of Hormuz.
RBC Capital Markets: A major Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilizing spiral
Israel’s government’s response to Iran’s attack will determine whether the situation will lead to a wider war or whether the risks of escalation will recede, according to RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts, including Helima Croft. A significant Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilizing spiral, they said.
“In such a scenario, we believe the risk to oil is not negligible, given Iran’s seizure of a ship in the Strait of Hormuz that preceded the missile and drone attacks,” the analysts said. Still, “if Israel backs down or mounts a moderated response, it appears that Iran may well seize the opportunity to return to the shadow war.”
What’s up with the gold?
Meanwhile, gold prices steadied on Monday, hovering near the previous session’s record highs, as traders closely watched developments around the Middle East, prompting the buying of safe-haven assets such as the precious metal. The spot price of gold is up 0.6% at $2,357.99 a barrel.
“Gold remains in focus as a financial asset given the combination of geopolitical risks and the prospect of Fed rate easing in the second half of the year,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“In many ways, gold is taking on the status of ‘asset for all occasions.’
Gold rose above the $2,400 level in the previous session and has gained more than 14% so far this year, boosted by strong central bank buying and traders’ preference for a safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
What is happening in the Greek Stock Exchange?
Contrary to what was happening in yesterday’s markets, the General Index in the Athens Stock Exchange was found to fall to 1,375.44 points (-1.8%) but with selected purchases by investors in blue chips, it limited the fall to 0.71%, ending at 1,390.69 units.
All four systemic banks finished down, but at different rates, with Piraeus limiting its losses to a minimum of 3,794 euros (-0.16%), while returning to the top of the turnover with 24.8 million euros.
On the other hand, Ethniki with the second highest turnover of the day at 22.3 million saw a sharp drop of 2.2 to 7.21 euros, while Alpha with 10.1 million fell to 1.575 euros (-1.25% ) and Eurobank at 1.829 euros (-1.14%) with 10.3 million.
In the main options of the buyers with which the losses were accumulated, Jumbo was at 26.7 euros (+1.06%) with 4.1 million and ELPE was at 8.23 euros (+1.1) with 3.9 million Sarantis at 11.4 euros (+1.79%) with 2.2 million Titans at 26.5 euros (+1.15%) with 2.1 million
Some support was also given by Ellactor with +1.6% to 2.49 euros (turnover of 889 thousand euros) and the index-weighted Coca Cola with +0.35% (955 thousand euros), while Viohalco won at the mark with small profits 0.15%.
On the other hand, the biggest pressures were exerted on PPC which dropped to 11.32 euros with a 2.67% dive with a turnover of 10 million, Aegean with -2.71% on transactions of 2.4 million, Lambda with -2, 4% (972 thousand euros) and ELVALHALCOR with -2.16% (405 thousand euros).
At the same time, OPAP with -0.49% (7.6 million), TERNA Energy with -0.66% (5.2 million), OTE with -0.7% (6 million) and GEK TERNA with 1.2% (2.4 million) further burdened the picture.
In the middle capitalization, Fourlis was rescued with +1.48%, Ideal with +0.48% and Kri Kri with +0.44%, while Reds had gains of 3.2% and Alumyl was at +0.78% but with small turnovers of 20 thousand euros and 40 thousand euros respectively.
Intralot came under strong pressure and fell to 1.044 euros with a 3.69% plunge and an extremely high turnover of 3 million. PPA closed at -3.15% and losses of more than 2% were also recorded by Intrakat (2.2 million) AVAX and Austriacard, while Intracom closed at -1.1% (1 million).
Special mention to Optima Bank which continued undaunted upward for the 9th consecutive session even with small gains of 0.2%, but consistently high turnover at 1.5 million.
Overall, sellers dominated the overall picture on the board, with 97 stocks closing lower compared to just 36 higher.
POS – Cash registers: Controls also in businesses with a turnover of less than 1 million euros
Hezbollah Announces It Targeted Israeli Soldiers- This Is Israel’s Response
Tragedy in Gaza: 5-year-old Palestinian girl shot dead – The Israelis say the northern strip is a war zone
April 17 strike: What applies to taxis
Israel: How the country’s air force could “bring Iran to its knees”?
#Oil #markets #reacted #Irans #attack #Israel #scenarios #day #happened #Greek #stock #market