Oil prices fell sharply as Brent crude dropped from $98.32 on Friday to $91.49 on Tuesday before bouncing back near $93, offering relief to motorists and consumers across Europe.
Sur passing this drop, the North Sea Brent fell nearly 5% on Monday to $94, remaining far above pre-war levels of 72.5 dollars according to Le Soir, while RTBF said that the war between Russia and Ukraine also remains an important influencing factor on the oil market.
Brent crude stabilizes near $93 per barrel
- Brent crude dropped nearly 7% early in the week before stabilizing around $93 per barrel.
- Belgian fuel price caps decreased on Wednesday, lowering the cost of a 50-litre fill-up for petrol drivers.
Diplomatic signals push crude downward
The decline follows the defeat of Donald Trump in the US midterms and a resumption of indirect negotiations with Iran, according to DHnet.
Le Soir reported that the downward trend actually began after a peak of $117 on October 30, following remarks from the American president on CNN on Sunday judging a resumption of hostilities with Iran “very improbable.” RTBF said that ongoing Middle East attacks continue to create uncertainty despite the diplomatic opening.
“Cela dépend de s’ils signent ou non un accord très solide,” said Donald Trump, referring to Iranian leaders during his CNN interview cited by Le Soir and RTBF.
Talks involving the Qatari prime minister as an intermediary have helped reduce immediate supply fears. Israel Hayom reported that Iran may drop its demand to control the Strait of Hormuz, though Tehran still seeks the end of port blockades and the release of frozen funds in Qatar before nuclear talks begin.
Pump prices respond with regional variations
In Belgium, regulatory price ceilings for petrol decreased on Wednesday, bringing 95 E10 down to 1.842 euros per litre and 98 E5 to 1.941 euros. DHnet said that this reduces the cost of a 50-litre fill-up by 3.15 euros and 4.45 euros respectively compared to previous tariffs, while diesel remained at 2.369 euros following its own decrease on November 7. On the ground, petrol was even observed at slightly over 1.60 € per litre.
Heating oil prices also declined. The price for H0/H7 mazout under 2,000 litres dropped to 1.4442 euros per litre, placing a 1,000-litre order at a maximum of 1,444.20 euros compared to 1,544.80 euros on November 5. These ceilings can be subject to discounts provided by distributors according to DHnet.
“C’est positif pour nous et pour notre économie, qui souffre depuis un certain temps,” said Bertrand Candelon, an economist at UCLouvain, speaking to DHnet.
Analysts advise caution amid market volatility
Candelon pointed out to DHnet that crude prices do not dictate pump prices alone, as refined product valuations, exchange rates, and taxes also affect costs. He also said that stocks and damaged refining capacity must be mentioned, and their reconstruction will take several months even if hostilities end.
“Une hirondelle ne fait pas le printemps, comme on dit. Je ne peux pas vous dire si cette baisse se poursuivra demain ou après-demain. Le marché reste très instable et dépend notamment de la situation au Moyen-Orient,” Candelon told DHnet.
“Il ne faut pas non plus se ruer immédiatement à la pompe. On a déjà vu les prix diminuer et les effets pourraient encore se transmettre dans une semaine ou deux,” Candelon added.
