Political turbulence triggered by the resignation of Gibran Rakabuming Raka on Tuesday has prompted analysts to forecast a 7% decline for the Jakarta Composite Index and a drop in the rupiah to between Rp 18,220 and Rp 18,250 per US dollar.
Rupiah Faces Downside Risks Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
- Market volatility is projected to push the rupiah toward the Rp 18,220 range while the Jakarta Composite Index faces downside risks reaching 7%.
- Corporate cash buffers remain high, with LQ45 issuers recording a net profit growth across 28 of 34 reporting firms through September 2026, though foreign capital outflows continue.
- Investors are adopting a wait-and-see stance through 2029 as coalition dynamics and potential policy shifts create regulatory uncertainty.
Rupiah Weakens as Political Friction Pressures Local Assets
The rupiah opened Wednesday at Rp 18,115 per US dollar, weakening 53 points or about 0,29 persen from its previous close of Rp 18,062, according to Kompas. Currency and commodity observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that ongoing political friction over legal issues and educational certificate disputes has compounded downward pressure on local assets, as reported by detikFinance. Ibrahim said that the rupiah could weaken further to between Rp 18,220 and Rp 18,250 per dollar.
“Tetapi dengan pengunduran diri Gibran sebagai wakil presiden, kemungkinan besar Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan ini akan mengalami turun, sampai di 7%. Kemudian, rupiah kemungkinan besar akan di level Rp 18.220 sampai di Rp 18.250,” ujar Ibrahim dalam keterangannya, Rabu (11/11/2026).”
CNBC Indonesia reported that the index dipped toward the 5,100 mark amid heavy selling. Meanwhile, FX Analyst Elvan Chandra Widyatama told CNBC Indonesia that external headwinds, including potential Federal Reserve rate hikes driven by sticky US inflation, have compounded the local currency’s difficulties.
Foreign Investors Pull Trillions from Domestic Capital Markets
Foreign investors have pulled Rp 127 trillion from the domestic capital market between January and September, according to figures cited by detikFinance. Additional strain stems from Morgan Stanley Capital International evaluations that threaten to downgrade Indonesia to a standalone market between 2026 and 2027 if capital market reforms stall. Ibrahim estimated this downgrade could trigger an extra US$ 2 hingga 6 miliar in foreign outflows by December.
Bursa Efek Indonesia President Director Jeffrey Hendrik urged investors to focus on underlying fundamentals and align decisions with their risk profiles despite the ongoing political shifts, Antara News reported. Similarly, Senior Technical Analyst M. Nafan Aji Gusta told detikFinance that market participants must monitor domestic political uncertainty, MSCI evaluations, rupiah depreciation, and Wall Street trends.
| Financial Metric / Indicator | Reported Value / Level | Source / Context |
|---|---|---|
| Rupiah Opening Level (Nov 11, 2026) | Rp 18,115 per USD | Kompas |
| Projected Rupiah Weakening Range | Rp 18,220 – Rp 18,250 | detikFinance |
| Projected Jakarta Composite Index Decline | Up to 7% | detikFinance |
| Jan–Sept 2026 Foreign Capital Outflows | Rp 127 trillion | detikFinance |
| Potential MSCI Downgrade Outflow Risk | US$ 2 hingga 6 miliar | detikFinance |
LQ45 Issuers Show Profit Growth Despite Market Jitters
Bank Danamon Chief Economist Irman Faiz warned that the primary concern is not the resignation itself, but how coalition realignments will shape economic leadership and policy continuity through 2027. Chambers of commerce representatives have emphasized the necessity of political stability and legal protection to prevent long-term investment delays.
“Persoalan utamanya bukanlah pengunduran diri itu sendiri, melainkan apakah penataan ulang koalisi akan mengubah kepemimpinan ekonomi atau komitmen kebijakan yang telah ditetapkan,” kata Irman dalam analisisnya, Selasa (9/11/2026).
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