Brent crude futures rose 12% through March 4th, as disruptions to energy flows in the Middle East prompted concerns about supply, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA is closely monitoring the situation, particularly potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. While upstream oil production facilities have not been directly impacted by attacks, the agency reports that some operators have begun curtailing production due to the instability. Output of refined products and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the region has similarly been significantly affected.
The global oil market had been experiencing a surplus since the beginning of 2025, and was projected to continue exceeding demand throughout 2026 prior to the recent military actions that began on February 28th. But, the IEA warns that prolonged supply disruptions could reverse this trend, creating a market deficit.
Despite the current instability, global oil inventories remain at a relatively high level, exceeding 8.2 billion barrels in 2025 – the highest since 2021. The IEA notes that member countries hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with an additional 600 million barrels held by industry under government obligation, which could be released if needed.
Natural gas markets have shown some rebalancing following the energy shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but remain sensitive to geopolitical events. The price of Dutch TTF, the European benchmark for natural gas, was up more than 50% through March 4th.
Rising energy prices are expected to have a broad impact on the global economy, influencing transportation costs, power generation, commodity production, and industrial activity. A sustained increase of $15 per barrel in oil prices could increase global inflation by nearly 0.5 percentage points and reduce global growth momentum by 0.2 percentage points, according to analysis of geopolitical oil shocks.
The United States, as a major oil and gas producer, is somewhat insulated from supply disruptions, though gasoline prices and financial markets are still affected by global turbulence. Europe, however, remains more vulnerable due to its reliance on imported energy, mirroring the sharp inflationary response seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Energy futures and options are being actively traded on the CME Group, with WTI Crude, Henry Hub Natural Gas, and Brent Crude among the benchmark products. Market participants are utilizing these instruments to manage risk and explore opportunities in the volatile energy landscape.
As of March 6, 2026, WTI Crude Oil was trading at $78.81 per barrel and Brent Crude at $83.44 per barrel, according to Bloomberg Markets.
