In an interview with DW, virologist Felix Drexler clarifies whether the omicron variant could become more aggressive, generating a “supervariant”, and comments on the high incidence in children in Latin America.
Omicron has become the dominant variant in much of the world, and unlike the previous ones, it is more contagious but also less lethal. However, is there a chance that an even worse ‘supervariant’ will emerge?
In an interview with DW, the virologist and professor at the prestigious Charité University Clinic in Berlin, Felix Drexler clarifies if this variant could become more aggressive, generating this phenomenon.
Ask: Some experts believe that the omicron variant of the coronavirus could spell the end of the pandemic. Now, however, others say that this could become more aggressive if this, which is more contagious, and delta, which is more deadly, are mixed, generating a “supermutation”. How does a mixture of variants occur?
Answer: It is important to remember that omicron’s main characteristic is that it is different enough not to be neutralized by the immunity generated by an infection or vaccination, but delta is equally or more transmissible.
It is not yet possible to ensure whether or not there will be a mix between different variants. In coronaviruses, as in other viruses with an RNA genome, there is a process called recombination, which is a form of mutation, but in a more brutal way.
Recombination occurs when two different viruses or variants infect a single cell in a host (human). Through recombination, this new mutation can acquire properties of another variant and, hypothetically, the worst of the two viruses could be mixed. Theoretically it is possible. But whether in practice it will happen, we do not know.
Q: Wasn’t the same thing said a few weeks ago when talking about “deltacron”, which in the end the experts defined as a false alarm? What is the difference now?
R: That “pseudofinding” described a potential recombination, but was most likely the result of laboratory contamination; that is, a laboratory error. These advisories are not made to create alarm, but rather to strengthen awareness of the need to get vaccinated and continue to avoid infections.
Q: It has also been said that because omicron seems to cause milder symptoms, the coronavirus might be getting weaker. Do you agree?
R: It is a false assumption to say that the coronavirus is getting weaker because it causes less illness and death. It is a thesis that unfortunately is replicated a lot and nobody can guarantee it yet.
The point is not whether omicron means the end of the pandemic, because it is weaker, or whether the virus is getting weaker. The point is that perhaps, at some point, so many people will have been infected that there will be such high population immunity that it results in fewer, or very few, illnesses and deaths. With what we would arrive at a state like that of influenza.
An Omicron ‘supervariant’?
Q: So, could new variants continue to emerge that lengthen the state of emergency in countries such as those in Latin America?
R: It could happen, but it seems very unlikely to me. I believe that when we have such a high level of immunity on the planet, including Latin America, the virus will have difficulty transmitting as easily as it does now. Therefore, you will have less opportunity to change, there will be less risk of new variants emerging, and there will be less chaos.
Q: Do you think that a “supermutation” could hit Latin American countries hard again?
R: As we always said, the problem that new variants can emerge is that everything repeats itself, as is happening now. Cases were declining in Latin America, despite delta, while they were increasing in Europe.
Immunity in Latin American countries was very high from infection and vaccination. But now, fortunately, due to vaccination, both in Europe and Latin America, we have fewer deaths. If the planet had had this level of transmission with delta, in a population without immunization and without anticovid measures, it would have been a total disaster.
BA.2, the new variant
Q: The new stealth variant of the omicron, the BA.2, is causing alarm in Northern Europe. How dangerous is it and what are its symptoms?
R: It’s worrying. The data from Denmark indicate that it is more transmissible because it is taking over, but we still do not know for sure if it is the same or more transmissible than the parental variant (ómicron). We have to hurry to identify the characteristics of each of these sublineages.
Q: On the other hand, cases of omicron in children in Latin America continue to increase. Also in the US, more hospitalizations of infected children are being recorded. What symptoms are being the most common in minors?
R: The symptomatology of omicron in children cannot be said exactly. What can be said is that it is not very surprising that the unvaccinated are becoming infected, now that there is more transmission and that children are going to schools. For this reason, many of them become infected, especially those under five years of age who have not been vaccinated.
But children are not more susceptible to omicron. They are just as likely to get COVID-19 as adults. In general, ómicron continues to be a dangerous variant, especially in those with comorbidity or previous illnesses.
Q: In any case, for what symptoms should parents seek emergency medical attention?
R: With omicron there could be certain symptoms that we did not see as much with other variants, however, fever and breathing problems are still predominant. Therefore, in the face of these symptoms, a test must be carried out so that they are treated and also avoid chains of transmission.
In addition, we still do not understand what the long-term consequences are. Studies are emerging that say that months after an infection, even a mild one, certain cognitive deficiencies or the appearance of multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS) are noticed. Both are still very serious issues.