Ajarn Jet believes that Omicron COVID-19 in Thailand is still in an uptrend, not a downtrend, expecting a fifth wave of outbreaks to come between Feb.-March.
On January 31, 65, reporters reported that Assoc. Prof. Dr. Jesada Denduangbriphan Faculty of Science Lecturer Chulalongkorn University Post a comment About the situation of Covid-19 in Thailand via Facebook page Oh, it’s like this by Ajarn Jet stated that I think “Covid-19 is still an uptrend, not a downtrend”. People commented that The situation of the Covid-19 epidemic in Thailand, which this new wave comes with the omicron mutant virus, is on the decline. We are going through a crisis already. Some added by raising news reports on the situation abroad. That many countries are down. Plus Thailand. There is news that the Ministry of Health will adjust the level of emergency of Covid. to be endemic I must say I see differently in this regard. I think we are still on the upswing of the epidemic. There is no evidence that it has reached its peak and has become bearish. understandably
It is true that many countries which has a severe epidemic of omicron that has rapidly increased in number of infected people But after about 1-2 months, it came to the peak of the outbreak. And is clearly coming down. For example, South Africa. United Kingdom, United States, Canada, etc. (See Figure 1.)
part of Thailand itself Although the curve of the number of new infections daily will not be as steep as other countries But it can be seen that it is still in an uptrend. Especially if you look at the model that counts both the PCR and ATK results together (gray line in Figure 2), it can be seen that there is still an uptrend.
only if compared to Thailand with other Asian countries Where there are outbreaks of this magnitude (eg Singapore, Japan, in the picture), our graph is not very steep. This may come from the ability to help each other control the epidemic. Press the slope of the graph for Thai people. or in reverse The number of officially reported cases is still not high. may be caused by a problem with the inspection However, if the ATK test is positive, home quarantine is usually required. Without taking the total to the ministry’s total, plus most omegle-infected people tend to have no symptoms. or just a little causing it to never be examined again until it heals on its own
Finally, the number of infected people reported less than it should be Compared to trends in other countries where omicron has a negative reputation. that it has spread widely quickly (which is surprising Because I constantly hear news that there are many infected people in that province, this province. that circle, this circle But why are the official numbers not so high?)
So, let’s just not underestimate each other. I still think we will have to deal with COVID-Omicron to the fullest. especially in February-March. and then after April-May already If it goes well Dealing well with Omikron (with 3 key weapons: ATK testing kits, home isolation and mobilization for all ages vaccinations) it’s possible that Thailand will start entering the end game just like any other country. into a real downtrend until starting to relax and reduce anxiety Let’s live together as usual.
I would like to add “9 important points” that you should know to deal with the epidemic situation of covid-omicron.
- Omikron is not a live vaccine (although there is growing evidence that When we are infected with the omicron strain of coviral, the body will be immune to the strain as well. Plus it spreads very quickly. This has led many foreign experts to say that Omikron can induce natural immunity. But that doesn’t mean It is safe to infect the virus directly into the body. like a live vaccine as some people misunderstand)
- Omikron is not mild. but less severe than Delta (that is, it is generally accepted that The severity that omecron causes in that patient less than the Delta species But there is an important observation point. The symptoms are less severe. It is often in the group that has previously been vaccinated against COVID. For those who have not been vaccinated and is in the risk group There is still a danger from the Omicron virus. until he may even die.)
- The fifth wave of outbreaks is sure to come. (Actually, these nine are from what I described on the radio since the end of 2021, which is as expected. is that there was an outbreak of coronavirus that started in January caused by the omecron species that spread widely and quickly replaced Delta )
- It is expected that the 5th wave is Feb. – Mar. (This is a forecast since the end of last year. By looking at the stage of the epidemic in each country after each other, that is, South Africa started in November. United Kingdom in December United States in January Therefore, Asia, including Thailand It’s probably coming in February. which is now clearly the start of the outbreak but not yet at the peak Therefore, it is worth watching to see if it will increase as expected or not.)
- Vaccinate children 5-11 years of age in Feb. (The most worrying situation in this outbreak is the group that hasn’t been vaccinated yet. which will be left only small children from the age of 12 years (although rarely have severe illness But there is no discomfort) and before the vaccine can be injected It would be during February. which if there really is an outbreak during this period (Worried about whether to get vaccinated in time or not?)
- The vaccine must be administered a month and a half before the outbreak. (It is one of the things that So many people misunderstand. is to view vaccines as medicines. to mobilize injecting together when the virus outbreak occurs which it will not be in time Because actually we need to inject 2 doses and wait for about 2 weeks for the body to fully build immunity. Which is about 1 and a half months in total. that should be injected before the outbreak of coronavirus occurs)
- Vaccines for children under 5 are not yet available (the most worrisome group in the half of this year is a group of very young children which has not yet had a vaccine to inject Abroad, there are reports of these children. that required hospitalization more than in previous outbreaks)
- The US vaccine for children under 5 is expected to be released around April (latest, there is a Pfizer mRNA vaccine. which uses the same vaccine formula as that of adults But reducing the dosage to 1 in 10 parts can be used with very young children. But it’s probably already April and we’ll start spraying. and before coming to inject in Thailand probably the second half of the year)
- The advice for young children is to keep them well around the children. Must be vaccinated (This depends on the epidemic situation If there is a severe outbreak in Thailand or in any province would have to try to take care of this group of children very well because he hasn’t been vaccinated yet. and how to do it to all the adults around Vaccination to protect everyone. for our own children)