El Niño has not gone away and continues to wreak havoc, affecting the sources from which the country’s aqueducts are supplied and the 23 reservoirs that serve the hydroelectric generation plants. This is an algebraic addition and subtraction game. The level of the reservoirs has been falling at a rate of 0.5% daily, while the water supply has been dramatically reduced.
According to the most recent report, the aggregate level of the reservoirs was 35.3%, very close to the 27% threshold, a level considered by the company XM, which manages the SIN, as critical, which would trigger all the alarms and force to activate contingency measures to avoid a blackout, which are provided for in the Rationing Statute.
We warned the Minister of Mines, that it was hasty, even irresponsible, to rush to affirm on February 8 (El Tiempo) that “we are about to overcome the El Niño phenomenon”, to ensure that thanks to his management we had overcome it. without major inconveniences. Well, with his statements the Minister gave an inappropriate signal that led the water companies to continue generating beyond the limits of prudence, accentuating the discharge and precipitating the drop in the aggregate level of the reservoirs. Words have power and even more so if the person who pronounces them has it.
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Meanwhile, the participation of thermal generation, which serves as backup to hydroelectric generation, thanks to the reliability charge, is increasing rapidly, exceeding 15%. If it were not for their effective response we would already be in darkness, but this has a limit that does not exceed 55% of the total demand. It should be noted that to guarantee the operation of the thermal park, given the shortage of natural gas, an average of 204 MMPCD has been imported through the regasification plant that operates in Barú (Cartagena) operated by Spec, with a capacity to process 400 MMPCD. , whose viability and installation in 2016 we made possible during our time at the Ministry of Mines and Energy, in order to have said support in the event of any eventuality such as the one that arises at this time.
And since the Minister remains in his logic, a prisoner of his words, he has refrained from promoting a necessary campaign to save energy consumption, as if he were doing so with water. The adage that it is better to be safe than sorry remains true. Napoleon said that when you are going up you can stop, but when you are going down it is very difficult to stop and this is the case. This means that neither an increase in water supply nor a stop to the fall of reservoirs is yet in sight.
When Minister Camacho stated that “hoy “We can guarantee energy security,” he says, counting on the installed generation and transmission capacity that, as is well known, is insufficient to guarantee the reliability and firmness of the SIN, given the narrow margin between supply 221 (GWHD) and demand (224 GWHD ) of energy, which keeps him at the limit, with the highest degree of stress. The security to which the Minister refers is based on the fact that the entire hydrothermal generation park works like a Swiss watchmaker.
It is enough for any mishap or contingency to occur, such as the one that occurred the previous week, which led to the withdrawal of the SIN from the El Paraíso Central in Mesitas del Colegio and its 400 MW, as a result of a blockade against the generator ENEL, which left the country in suspense. , so that a systemic failure occurs. When its unavailability was declared, the voltage was affected, causing a greater speed of discharge in other adjacent plants. As they say, we are walking along the ledge.
The Minister of the Environment Susana Muhamad said it at the time, when declaring the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon last October, El Niño is not a game. Its behavior is erratic, its course is unpredictable as is its duration. And we must not forget that the trigger for the blackout during the years 1992-1993, which lasted 14 months, was a miscalculation by the ISA Board of Directors, which at that time controlled the operation of the entire System, by betting on the arrival of the rains that never came. Do not repeat the story!
The pagans of any unpredictability and/or improvidence, as always, we will be the users who, sooner rather than later, will be the ones who will see the rise in prices and rates reflected in our invoices.
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2024-03-27 04:28:24
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