Andrzej Gajewski, prezes of Orlen Termika, was dismissed from his post by Orlen on September 16, 2026, just one day after publicly warning that Poland faces severe coal shortages and potential rationing during the upcoming winter heating season if temperatures drop.
The Bottom Line
- The Catalyst: Gajewski warned industry leaders at the XXX Forum Ciepłowników Polskich in Międzyzdroje that Poland’s coal reserves will “scrape the bottom” if winter mirrors the previous year’s cold snap.
- Market Tightness: Domestic thermal coal inventories are evaporating rapidly, with Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG) reporting that stockpiles exceeding 2 million tons in December are projected to hit practically zero by year-end.
- Supply Chain Realities: First-quarter 2026 production of energy from hard coal rose over 7% year-on-year, while thermal coal imports surged 168% to 3.06 million tons in the first half of the year as utilities substituted expensive gas following Middle East shipping disruptions.
The Dismissal That Sent Shockwaves Through Polish Energy Markets
On September 16, 2026, the executive leadership at Orlen acted swiftly to remove Andrzej Gajewski from his role heading Orlen Termika, a critical subsidiary responsible for generating electricity and municipal heat for Warsaw and its surrounding regions. According to reports broken by industry outlet XYZ and corroborated by Rzeczpospolita, Gajewski’s sudden termination came directly on the heels of his unvarnished assessment delivered at the XXX Forum Ciepłowników Polskich in Międzyzdroje.
During the industry gathering, Gajewski cut through corporate messaging to highlight an uncomfortable operational reality. “Will we run out of coal this winter? In my opinion, we will run out or there will be a shortage of the raw material,” Gajewski stated during his panel address. He further clarified that utilities would be “scraping the bottom” of stockpiles if heating demands match the previous season. While maintaining that his specific municipal heating company had secured baseline supplies, the public admission of systemic vulnerability triggered an immediate boardroom backlash from primary stakeholder Orlen.
Widening Supply Deficits Across Domestic Mining Majors
The ousted executive’s warnings find direct backing in hard operational data released by Poland’s primary solid fuel extractors. Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG), the largest coal producer in the European Union, has seen commercial demand drastically outstrip production models formulated at the close of the previous year. Łukasz Deja, prezes of Polska Grupa Górnicza, admitted that the enterprise will ramp up output by over 1 million tons relative to prior targets, even amid an aggressive structural transformation.
The numbers reveal a tightening physical balance sheet across the domestic market. PGG’s surface stockpiles, which stood above 2 million tons in December, are on trajectory to deplete practically to zero by the conclusion of 2026. This indicates the producer will move nearly 3 million tons more product than initial financial models anticipated. Parallel pressures are visible at Lubelski Węgiel Bogdanka, a company that seeks markets outside its home group Enea. Bogdanka maintains its annual output target of approximately 8 million tons while aggressively expanding external sales. During the first half of 2026, Bogdanka’s sales to non-group clients—including Orlen Termika, Energa, and PGE—expanded 48.9% year-over-year to 886,000 tons.
| Metric / Indicator | 2026 Operational Figure | YoY Change vs. Prior Period |
|---|---|---|
| Hard Coal Energy Production (Q1) | Increased across sector | +7% YoY |
| Thermal Coal Import Volume (H1) | 3.06 million tons | +168.0% YoY |
| Bogdanka Total Production (H1) | 4.38 million tons | +13.1% YoY |
| Bogdanka External Sales (H1) | 886,000 tons | +48.9% YoY |
Geopolitical Headwinds and Macroeconomic Spillover
The domestic scramble for solid fuel is not happening in a vacuum. European energy markets continue to absorb the financial shock of the previous cold winter season, which drained localized reserves. Compounding these structural deficits, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East severely constricted liquefied natural gas shipping lanes. As gas prices spiked, European power generators pivoted aggressively toward cheaper coal, accelerating inventory burn rates across the continent.
Regulatory authorities have begun acknowledging the lack of synchronized oversight. Marian Zmarzły, Deputy Minister of Energy, noted that operational strategies among individual mines, energy utilities, and private importers currently proceed without a cohesive national framework. Zmarzły emphasized that ongoing capacity phase-outs must be carefully calibrated to protect energy security. Meanwhile, mining majors navigate severe labor adjustments; PGG is advancing a restructuring plan that will see over 5,000 workers exit the firm by year-end alongside the closure of two mining movements.
Market Implications and Future Outlook
With thermal coal imports reaching 3.06 million tons in the first half of the year—a surge compared to historical baselines—industrial buyers are heavily reliant on external maritime supply chains.
As commercial stockpiles near zero and mining companies like Bogdanka prepare for lower second-half production outputs due to longwall relocation schedules, European utility margins will remain tightly correlated to winter temperature anomalies.
