The U.S.-China conflict entered a new phase with the visit of U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. It is analyzed that the possibility of armed conflict between the United States, which emphasizes ‘maintaining the status quo in Taiwan’ and China, which insists on ‘one China’, is increasing. The competition for supremacy in the Indo-Pacific and the domestic political situation of both countries are intertwined, leading to a ‘chicken game’ that neither side can make concessions to.
○US “status status” vs China “serious situation”
According to Taiwanese media, Chairman Pelosi visited Malaysia on the 2nd and then moved to Taiwan late in the afternoon. He is said to depart for his next destination, South Korea, after three days of talks with President Tsai Ing-wen. It is the first visit by the chairman of the House of Representatives to Taiwan in 25 years since Newt Gingrich in 1997.
As China strongly opposed Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the White House announced on the 1st (local time) that it would take necessary safety measures against Pelosi. The White House initially called for a cautious approach, believing that Pelosi’s actions could provoke tensions between the US and China. However, when Pelosi confirmed the schedule for his visit to Taiwan, he emphasized that he would focus on personal security.
“The House Speaker has the right to visit Taiwan,” said John Kirby, the White House’s National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator at a briefing on the same day. ” he said. “The visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives has precedent, and this visit does not change the situation. He also has no change in the US ‘one China’ policy and he does not support Taiwan’s independence,” he explained.
U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blincoln said, “If Chairman Pelosi decides to visit, we expect China to act responsibly and not engage in any escalation of tension.”
○The domestic politics of both countries are entangled
China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has even raised the possibility of using force to deter Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. “President Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is an interference in China’s internal affairs and an arbitrary trampling of the ‘one China’ principle,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhao Lijian said in a briefing the day before. will result,” he warned.
According to Archyde.com, several Chinese military aircraft made a close flight over the midline of the Taiwan Strait on the same day. The Chinese military plane has stayed close since the day before, briefly touching the midline, and repeating the tactical movement of returning. Taiwanese military planes were waiting nearby. The Taiwan Free Times reported that four Chinese J-16 fighter jets entered the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in southwestern Taiwan on the day before, and the Ministry of National Defense has activated an air defense missile system.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan also involved the domestic political situation in both countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing for the 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party, which will confirm his third term. For Xi, the unification of Taiwan is considered an achievement that must be achieved in order to rise to the ranks of Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping. For this reason, China views Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as a US strategy to undermine Xi’s authority and is strongly opposed to it.
U.S. President Joe Biden faces the midterm elections in November. If Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is canceled, it is difficult to avoid criticism that he has succumbed to Chinese threats. President Biden’s approval ratings have fallen to their lowest levels due to inflation and a recession.
The chicken game between the two countries is expected to be a burden not only for President Biden but also for President Xi. It is pointed out that leading to a conflict is a scenario neither the United States nor China wants.
Washington = Inseol Jeong/Beijing = Correspondent Hyeonu Kang [email protected]